IHSG Bustling Ahead of Eid, But Still Plummets — Worst Performance in a Decade
Jakarta — The Indonesia Composite Index (IHSG) trading on 17 March 2026, the final trading day before the extended Eid holiday break, exceeded Rp24 trillion in transaction value, representing the highest volume in preceding days despite continued index decline.
This underscores that each year ahead of Eid, trading activity on Indonesia’s stock exchange typically intensifies. However, this year proved different, as the busy trading occurred amid ongoing pressures weighing on the domestic stock market.
The IHSG has weakened for four consecutive weeks and now stands around the 7,100 level. Measured from its peak above 9,000 on 20 January 2026, the index has corrected by more than 20%.
Unsurprisingly, trading activity approaching the Eid holiday this year appeared more moderate. Although still considered active compared to the 2022-2024 period, transaction values were considerably lower than the 2025 euphoria, which had recorded exceptionally large trading volumes.
Historically, Indonesian equity trading has remained active approaching Eid. Over the past five years, average transaction values during the five days before Eid consistently exceeded Rp10 trillion.
Looking further back, one of the busiest periods occurred on the day before Eid 2020, when transaction value surged to Rp40.40 trillion. Market sentiment then was driven by positive news from Moderna announcing initial results of its COVID-19 mRNA-1273 vaccine trial, which demonstrated antibody formation among trial participants and provided a bright spot amid pandemic uncertainty.
Activity spikes also occurred in 2022, specifically three days before Eid, with transaction values reaching Rp39.78 trillion. During that period, the stock market was supported by net foreign buying of Rp19.43 trillion, with massive foreign fund inflows driven by post-pandemic performance recovery and a commodity boom momentum that boosted profits in the energy and commodities sectors.
In 2026, despite the market being in a correction phase, trading activity approaching the Eid holiday remained reasonably active, with transactions staying above Rp24 trillion on the final trading day.
However, it should be understood that such transaction values represent the combined activity of buying and selling in the market. This means high transaction values do not necessarily reflect investor optimism, as they could result from substantial selling activity amid market pressure.
Particularly given the IHSG’s weakness over recent weeks, elevated transaction activity could reflect many investors conducting portfolio rebalancing, taking profits, or even cutting losses before entering the extended Eid holiday period.
Historically, IHSG movements approaching Eid Day have always been characterised by volatility. Based on one-week performance data before the Eid holiday over the past 12 years (2015-2026), the majority of index movements consisted only of minor corrections to modest gains.
The largest pre-Eid surge occurred in 2016 with a 4.82% increase, followed by 2019 at 2.92% and 2025 at 2.02%. Conversely, the deepest decline actually occurred in 2026, when the IHSG corrected approximately 4%.
The most striking negative anomaly happened this year. Approaching the 18-24 March 2026 Eid holiday, the IHSG recorded its deepest correction in more than a decade, declining 4.49% in a single week.
This sharp weakness was not solely due to seasonal factors such as retail investor fund withdrawals before the extended holiday. The primary pressure stemmed from heated macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiment throughout the month.
US-Iran tensions in the Middle East have shaken global energy markets and driven crude oil prices above US$100 per barrel. The energy price surge triggered global inflation concerns, prompting markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would maintain elevated interest rates longer.
These conditions triggered capital outflows from emerging market economies, including Indonesia, towards safe-haven assets. Pressure was also felt by several Asian exchanges including India’s Sensex, South Korea’s KOSPI, and Japan’s Nikkei, all similarly sensitive to supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz.
Domestically, rising oil prices raised concerns about potential swelling of energy subsidies in the state budget. Simultaneously, the rupiah faced pressure from US dollar strengthening, which briefly brought the exchange rate close to Rp17,000 per US dollar.