IHSG at Risk of Pressure from Middle East Conflict

Jakarta – Indonesia’s composite stock index (IHSG) is projected to move within a limited range due to conditions in the Middle East. Market analysts and founder of Republik Investor Hendra Wardana have warned of risks to the IHSG during next week’s trading.

According to Hendra, the escalating conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is not merely a political issue but has entered the realm of economic risk at the global level.

“The market has responded immediately with a risk-off pattern. Global investors tend to exit risky assets and seek shelter in safe-haven assets,” Hendra told Antara news agency in Jakarta on Sunday, 1 March 2026.

Should the conflict escalation disrupt shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, Hendra explained, it could cause global oil prices to spike higher as the market recalculates supply risks.

“The impact could spread to global inflation, exchange rates, and interest rate policies in various countries,” Hendra said.

For Indonesia’s capital market, he explained pressure could come from two sides: first, potential capital outflows as foreign investors reduce exposure to emerging markets, and second, the risk of import-driven inflation due to rising global energy prices.

Should oil prices remain at elevated levels, he said, this could increase production cost burdens and compress the profit margins of listed companies.

“In such conditions, the IHSG could move downward and test the classic support level at 8,133. If that level breaks, the psychological area of 8,000 becomes the next support. Meanwhile, the nearest resistance is at 8,300,” Hendra said.

However, he noted that not all sectors will be negatively affected. For retail investors, Hendra recommends that the best approach is to be disciplined and selective.

“For those with an aggressive risk profile, momentum in the commodities sector could be leveraged with strict risk management,” Hendra said.