IHSG at risk of falling to the 7,700 level as US–Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure weigh on markets
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) was expected to continue its correction in Wednesday’s trading session, 4 March 2026. Earlier, the IHSG closed down 0.96 percent or 77.06 points at 7,939.76.
M. Nafan Aji Gusta, Senior Technical Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, said the US–Iran conflict affects energy prices and global inflation. The risk-off sentiment is expected to persist amid global geopolitical factors and concerns about inflation and market volatility.
Phintraco Sekuritas’ analyst team added that Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sparked volatility in global energy markets. Asian countries are expected to bear the largest impact.
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to push crude oil prices higher. This would drive inflation higher and influence central banks’ monetary policy.
The Strait of Hormuz serves as a global trade route for oil, with around 13 million barrels per day (bpd) passing through the strait in 2025. This amount represents about 31 percent of all crude oil flows by sea.
“Concerns that the US–Israel conflict with Iran could last longer than previously anticipated have become negative sentiment weighing on the IHSG. In addition, corrections in several energy and mining stocks have added pressure on the index,” Phintraco Sekuritas’ daily research team said, in their research for Wednesday, 4 March 2026.
Technically, the IHSG has broken below the psychological level of 8,000 and the MA200. The formation of a negative MACD histogram and a downward-sloping Stochastic RSI in the pivot area indicate that the IHSG’s downside may continue.
“If the IHSG’s support at 7,860 is breached, it is expected to test the next support at 7,700–7,800,” according to Phintraco Sekuritas’ analysts.
Furthermore, Nafan predicts a number of stocks with solid performances in today’s trading session. Here are potentially lucrative stock recommendations for investors to keep an eye on.
PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT)
Recommendation: Accumulative Buy
Buy range: 1,720-1,820
Target price: 1,910
PT Erajaya Swasembada Tbk (ERAA)
Recommendation: Accumulative Buy
Buy range: 420-436
Target price: 442
PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO)