IHSG Anxious Ahead of Eid Holiday, What's the Reason?

Jakarta — The Indonesian composite stock index (IHSG) closed down 114.9 points or 1.61 per cent to 7,022 on Monday, with the index touching an intraday low of 6,917.

Liza Camelia Suryanata, head of research at Kiwoom Securities Indonesia, said the Indonesian stock market appeared significantly more anxious compared with most Asian bourses ahead of the extended Eid holiday period.

“The IHSG’s substantial correction below the psychological 7,000 level is driven not only by global sentiment, but by a combination of several risk factors emerging nearly simultaneously, ranging from geopolitics, energy, global monetary policy, to domestic factors,” she said in a written statement on Monday, 16 March 2026.

“Ahead of the extended Eid holiday, investors tend to adopt a defensive stance because the Indonesian market cannot immediately respond to global developments during the holiday period,” she added.

Suryanata explained that the market is currently pricing not only the present conditions but also scenarios following Eid.

According to her, if energy prices remain high and fuel or fiscal deficit policies are not adjusted, continued pressure on the rupiah, bonds and the IHSG could persist.

However, if the conflict eases and oil prices stabilise below 100 US dollars per barrel, some of the pressure on the Indonesian market could ease.

“This would be a perfect reason for a technical rebound from the psychological 7,000 level,” she said.

Suryanata explained that Indonesia is highly sensitive to oil price spikes because it remains dependent on energy imports.

Earlier in March, the government stated that national fuel reserves were sufficient for only around 20 days.

Meanwhile, the government has assured that fuel prices will not increase until Eid, but uncertainty has emerged for the period following Eid.

“The government has even encouraged work from home or work from anywhere schemes to conserve fuel,” she said.

She believed that if oil prices remain elevated, the government will face a dilemma: raising fuel prices, increasing energy subsidies, or bearing a greater fiscal burden.