IHSG and Rupiah Under Threat as Oil Surges Past US$100, Critical News from China
Indonesia’s financial markets are projected to face considerable pressure. Global equity markets are experiencing significant headwinds as crude oil prices surge and economic data disappoints.
The US stock market closed Friday in negative territory, with all three major indices recording substantial declines following a week of losses driven by surging oil prices and weaker-than-expected employment data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 453.19 points, or 0.95%, closing at 47,501.55, with a weekly decline of 3%. The S&P 500 weakened 1.33% to 6,740.02, recording a weekly loss of 2%. The Nasdaq Composite declined 1.59% to close at 22,387.68, with a total weekly loss of 1.2%.
The declines were driven partly by West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices breaching the US$90 per barrel level due to escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, triggering market concerns about potential further inflationary pressures.
BlackRock Restricts Fund Redemptions for the First Time
BlackRock’s shares fell 7%, marking their worst trading day since early April, following the investment management company’s decision to restrict redemptions from one of its private credit funds for the first time. The HPS Corporate Lending Fund announced it would only repurchase up to 5% of shares in the current quarter, the minimum commitment level. Redemption requests from investors reached 9.3%, the first quarter in four years that withdrawal requests exceeded the 5% threshold. This sentiment has pressured BlackRock shares down 9.9% since the start of the year.
Employment Data Disappoints and Complicates Fed Policy
Equity markets faced additional pressure from the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics report. Non-farm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 jobs in February, contradicting economists’ earlier expectations of a 50,000 job gain. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius characterised current labour market growth as weak, noting that the US remains in a “low hire, low fire” environment. Hatzius also noted that recent economic data surprises increasingly signal stagflation risks—where high inflation occurs simultaneously with economic stagnation and unemployment.
Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly stated that the February labour market weakness adds complexity to central bank policymaking. The softening labour market, combined with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, puts the Fed in a more challenging position. However, Daly cautioned against drawing excessive conclusions from a single month’s data.
Ciena Shares Advance on AI Data Centre Network Prospects
Amid broader market weakness, optical network equipment provider Ciena recorded a near 3% gain Friday, boosted by Bank of America upgrading the stock to buy from neutral. BofA analyst Tal Liani sees potential upside exceeding 18% with a new price target of US$355. The positive outlook is based on rising cloud spending and strong demand for optical networking hardware to support artificial intelligence data centre operations. This capital expenditure cycle is projected to extend through 2027, positioning Ciena’s dominant optical market share for continued growth.
March 2026 trading has entered its second week, with markets facing a packed schedule of macroeconomic data releases from both domestic and global exchanges. These releases serve as crucial leading indicators for assessing central bank monetary policy direction, economic growth prospects, and cross-border capital flows. Key focus areas include US inflation data, China inflation, China trade data, other economic indicators, and developments in Middle East tensions.
Oil Price Surge
Oil prices surged in trading Monday, 9 March 2026. The price jump could trigger inflationary pressures potentially raising living costs and interest rates globally. Meanwhile, strong investor demand for liquidity keeps the US dollar in favour.
For Indonesia, rising oil prices could burden imports, fuel subsidies, and the rupiah.
According to Refinitiv, on Monday, 9 March 2026 at 06:02 WIB, WTI crude was at US$107.60 per barrel, up 16%. This represents the highest oil price since June 2022, following the Russia-Ukraine war outbreak in early February 2022.
WTI crude has surged 48% since the Iran-Israel-US conflict erupted on Saturday, 27 February 2026.
Brent crude rose 2% to US$92.69 per barrel today. Brent crude has surged 17% to US$108.73 per barrel, having previously gained 28% last week, whilst US crude rose 19% to US$108.33 per barrel.
Iran has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader.