If Gus Dur goes, is it for the better or worse?

If Gus Dur goes, is it for the better or worse?

HONG KONG: The struggle for the Indonesian presidency is
intensifying. The latest speculation is that President
Abdurrahman Wahid will declare a state of emergency as a way to
stay in office. While his presidential aides have denied this
possibility, the fact that such a rumor exists reflects the
tenseness in Jakarta.

Other rumors have Wahid considering the dissolution of
parliament to prevent impeachment or sacking the increasingly
disgruntled military chiefs to replace them with his own
loyalists. Again, the president's spokesmen deny these reports
and charge that his opponents are making it all up to portray
their boss in a bad light. One would hope that is the case. It is
imperative that Wahid obey his country's laws, whatever the
consequences.

It is not a promising situation when a fragile democracy
prepares to impeach its first popularly elected leader. The
political struggle in Indonesia could easily destroy the progress
the country has made toward constitutional government.

Wahid has displayed many shortcomings in office, but he has a
very large following that is growing increasingly militant.

His opponents, whatever they do, would be wise to make it
clear that they are sticking to constitutional procedures and
upholding the rule of law. Even if they do that, there could be
increased strife.

Wahid himself has not handled this crisis with a sure hand. In
an interview with Newsweek, he was sharply critical of Vice
President Megawati Soekarnoputri, his likely successor should his
foes in parliament bring him down. He cast an indirect aspersion
on her by saying that only he can guarantee clean government,
adding that "she never said she would cling to the rule of law."
Last Friday, implying that the legislative procedures against him
are illegal, Wahid said, "We must fight with all our might"
against them.

Given the potential for his millions of supporters to hit the
streets -- especially after many of them have already threatened
to kill anti-Wahid legislators -- such remarks are not helpful.
Wahid has been vigilant in the past to discourage violence. It
would be a potentially bloody mistake for him to loosen his
control now that his personal situation is more desperate.

Megawati has not responded in kind, at least publicly, to the
president's criticism. In recent days, however, she has been more
clear about her ambition to take over if the president is
removed.

On Sunday in Wahid's home state of East Java, the vice
president addressed 100,000 people, mentioning the likelihood
that she would become president. Wisely, however, she also
appealed for peace and never criticized Wahid by name. What she
has done behind the scenes to encourage the impeachment movement
in parliament can only be guessed.

It is possible that Megawati would be a better president than
Wahid, who hasn't set a very high standard. She is popular across
a spectrum of different classes, and even though this is due
largely to her being the daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia's
founding father, it is a valuable asset.

It is said that the military brass likes her, as do many
traditional ruling elites. Despite her untested abilities to run
a government, she might have the stature to ease her country
through this crisis if she is called upon to do so. But her
supporters should consider very carefully whether she is up to
that task.

Unfortunately, there is no sign that they harbor any
misgivings as the impeachment procedure grinds along. After
censuring the president twice this year, the House of
Representatives is scheduled to meet on May 30 to decide whether
or not to call a special session of the People's Consultative
Assembly, the nation's highest constitutional body. If they do,
impeachment proceedings could oust Wahid from power by August.

If that happens, the future for Indonesia will be no clearer
than it is now. The country will have a new leader, but also a
legacy of bitterness among Wahid's followers. We hope his
opponents have asked themselves whether they are making a bad
situation better, or worse.

-- The Asian Wall Street Journal