If Gus Dur goes, is it for the better or worse?
If Gus Dur goes, is it for the better or worse?
HONG KONG: The struggle for the Indonesian presidency is intensifying. The latest speculation is that President Abdurrahman Wahid will declare a state of emergency as a way to stay in office. While his presidential aides have denied this possibility, the fact that such a rumor exists reflects the tenseness in Jakarta.
Other rumors have Wahid considering the dissolution of parliament to prevent impeachment or sacking the increasingly disgruntled military chiefs to replace them with his own loyalists. Again, the president's spokesmen deny these reports and charge that his opponents are making it all up to portray their boss in a bad light. One would hope that is the case. It is imperative that Wahid obey his country's laws, whatever the consequences.
It is not a promising situation when a fragile democracy prepares to impeach its first popularly elected leader. The political struggle in Indonesia could easily destroy the progress the country has made toward constitutional government.
Wahid has displayed many shortcomings in office, but he has a very large following that is growing increasingly militant.
His opponents, whatever they do, would be wise to make it clear that they are sticking to constitutional procedures and upholding the rule of law. Even if they do that, there could be increased strife.
Wahid himself has not handled this crisis with a sure hand. In an interview with Newsweek, he was sharply critical of Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri, his likely successor should his foes in parliament bring him down. He cast an indirect aspersion on her by saying that only he can guarantee clean government, adding that "she never said she would cling to the rule of law." Last Friday, implying that the legislative procedures against him are illegal, Wahid said, "We must fight with all our might" against them.
Given the potential for his millions of supporters to hit the streets -- especially after many of them have already threatened to kill anti-Wahid legislators -- such remarks are not helpful. Wahid has been vigilant in the past to discourage violence. It would be a potentially bloody mistake for him to loosen his control now that his personal situation is more desperate.
Megawati has not responded in kind, at least publicly, to the president's criticism. In recent days, however, she has been more clear about her ambition to take over if the president is removed.
On Sunday in Wahid's home state of East Java, the vice president addressed 100,000 people, mentioning the likelihood that she would become president. Wisely, however, she also appealed for peace and never criticized Wahid by name. What she has done behind the scenes to encourage the impeachment movement in parliament can only be guessed.
It is possible that Megawati would be a better president than Wahid, who hasn't set a very high standard. She is popular across a spectrum of different classes, and even though this is due largely to her being the daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia's founding father, it is a valuable asset.
It is said that the military brass likes her, as do many traditional ruling elites. Despite her untested abilities to run a government, she might have the stature to ease her country through this crisis if she is called upon to do so. But her supporters should consider very carefully whether she is up to that task.
Unfortunately, there is no sign that they harbor any misgivings as the impeachment procedure grinds along. After censuring the president twice this year, the House of Representatives is scheduled to meet on May 30 to decide whether or not to call a special session of the People's Consultative Assembly, the nation's highest constitutional body. If they do, impeachment proceedings could oust Wahid from power by August.
If that happens, the future for Indonesia will be no clearer than it is now. The country will have a new leader, but also a legacy of bitterness among Wahid's followers. We hope his opponents have asked themselves whether they are making a bad situation better, or worse.
-- The Asian Wall Street Journal