If Gus Dur goes, is it for the better or worse?<\/p>\n
HONG KONG: The struggle for the Indonesian presidency is
\nintensifying. The latest speculation is that President
\nAbdurrahman Wahid will declare a state of emergency as a way to
\nstay in office. While his presidential aides have denied this
\npossibility, the fact that such a rumor exists reflects the
\ntenseness in Jakarta.<\/p>\n
Other rumors have Wahid considering the dissolution of
\nparliament to prevent impeachment or sacking the increasingly
\ndisgruntled military chiefs to replace them with his own
\nloyalists. Again, the president's spokesmen deny these reports
\nand charge that his opponents are making it all up to portray
\ntheir boss in a bad light. One would hope that is the case. It is
\nimperative that Wahid obey his country's laws, whatever the
\nconsequences.<\/p>\n
It is not a promising situation when a fragile democracy
\nprepares to impeach its first popularly elected leader. The
\npolitical struggle in Indonesia could easily destroy the progress
\nthe country has made toward constitutional government.<\/p>\n
Wahid has displayed many shortcomings in office, but he has a
\nvery large following that is growing increasingly militant.<\/p>\n
His opponents, whatever they do, would be wise to make it
\nclear that they are sticking to constitutional procedures and
\nupholding the rule of law. Even if they do that, there could be
\nincreased strife.<\/p>\n
Wahid himself has not handled this crisis with a sure hand. In
\nan interview with Newsweek, he was sharply critical of Vice
\nPresident Megawati Soekarnoputri, his likely successor should his
\nfoes in parliament bring him down. He cast an indirect aspersion
\non her by saying that only he can guarantee clean government,
\nadding that "she never said she would cling to the rule of law."
\nLast Friday, implying that the legislative procedures against him
\nare illegal, Wahid said, "We must fight with all our might"
\nagainst them.<\/p>\n
Given the potential for his millions of supporters to hit the
\nstreets -- especially after many of them have already threatened
\nto kill anti-Wahid legislators -- such remarks are not helpful.
\nWahid has been vigilant in the past to discourage violence. It
\nwould be a potentially bloody mistake for him to loosen his
\ncontrol now that his personal situation is more desperate.<\/p>\n
Megawati has not responded in kind, at least publicly, to the
\npresident's criticism. In recent days, however, she has been more
\nclear about her ambition to take over if the president is
\nremoved.<\/p>\n
On Sunday in Wahid's home state of East Java, the vice
\npresident addressed 100,000 people, mentioning the likelihood
\nthat she would become president. Wisely, however, she also
\nappealed for peace and never criticized Wahid by name. What she
\nhas done behind the scenes to encourage the impeachment movement
\nin parliament can only be guessed.<\/p>\n
It is possible that Megawati would be a better president than
\nWahid, who hasn't set a very high standard. She is popular across
\na spectrum of different classes, and even though this is due
\nlargely to her being the daughter of Sukarno, Indonesia's
\nfounding father, it is a valuable asset.<\/p>\n
It is said that the military brass likes her, as do many
\ntraditional ruling elites. Despite her untested abilities to run
\na government, she might have the stature to ease her country
\nthrough this crisis if she is called upon to do so. But her
\nsupporters should consider very carefully whether she is up to
\nthat task.<\/p>\n
Unfortunately, there is no sign that they harbor any
\nmisgivings as the impeachment procedure grinds along. After
\ncensuring the president twice this year, the House of
\nRepresentatives is scheduled to meet on May 30 to decide whether
\nor not to call a special session of the People's Consultative
\nAssembly, the nation's highest constitutional body. If they do,
\nimpeachment proceedings could oust Wahid from power by August.<\/p>\n
If that happens, the future for Indonesia will be no clearer
\nthan it is now. The country will have a new leader, but also a
\nlegacy of bitterness among Wahid's followers. We hope his
\nopponents have asked themselves whether they are making a bad
\nsituation better, or worse.<\/p>\n
-- The Asian Wall Street Journal<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/if-gus-dur-goes-is-it-for-the-better-or-worse-1447893297", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }