IEA: Supply Disruptions Pressure Global Oil Production This Year
Jakarta — Global oil supply and production face significant pressure in March 2026 as geopolitical disruptions intensify in the Middle East region.
In its latest March 2026 Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil supply will experience sharp declines in the short term, whilst simultaneously revising downwards its projections for production growth throughout the year.
According to the report, the IEA estimates global oil supply will fall by approximately 8 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026, primarily due to production cuts and disruptions to export flows in the Middle East region.
The report notes that the scale of supply loss is highly dependent on the duration of the conflict and the extent of disruption to global oil distribution routes.
The IEA considers this situation to create significant uncertainty regarding the balance of global oil markets in the short term.
Despite these pressures, the IEA forecasts that global oil supply in 2026 will still increase by approximately 1.1 million bpd on an annual average basis, though all growth is projected to originate from non-OPEC+ producers.
Notwithstanding the production decline in March 2026, the IEA still expects that on an annual basis global oil supply will grow faster than demand.
Consequently, the market is projected to maintain a surplus of approximately 2.46 million bpd in 2026, although this surplus has also contracted from previous estimates.
Supply disruptions accompanied by rising energy prices have also impacted projections for global oil consumption.
Overall, global oil consumption in 2026 is now projected to increase by approximately 640,000 bpd annually, or down by approximately 210 bpd from the previous month’s projection.
Rising oil prices and global economic uncertainty are considered to be the primary factors restraining demand growth.
In response to supply disruptions, IEA member states have agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves in order to help stabilise the global energy market.