IDC Research: Global Smartphone Market Faces Bleak 2026

The global smartphone market is predicted to face its worst year in 2026. International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that worldwide smartphone shipments will plunge 12.9 per cent annually to just 1.12 billion units, representing the lowest shipment level in more than a decade.

According to IDC’s latest report, the primary cause of this smartphone shipment decline is a global memory crisis. Limited memory supply coupled with sustained high demand is constraining availability. Chip manufacturers are reportedly prioritising the data centre market, which offers higher profit margins than consumer devices such as smartphones.

Memory, particularly DRAM (RAM), is a critical component in smartphones, enabling demanding applications to run smoothly. When memory prices surge, device production costs rise accordingly. IDC forecasts that the average selling price (ASP) for smartphones will increase 14 per cent to a record $523 (approximately IDR 8.7 million) in 2026.

Consequently, handset manufacturers are expected to shift focus towards premium models with higher margins to offset surging component costs. The budget segment for phones below $100 (approximately IDR 1.6 million) is also said to face permanent structural challenges of becoming “no longer affordable,” even after memory prices are projected to stabilise in mid-2027.

In contrast, Apple and Samsung are considered to hold stronger positions thanks to robust finances and dominance in the premium segment. IDC even predicts these two giants could potentially expand market share as smaller competitors struggle to survive.

Regionally, areas with significant entry-level smartphone penetration are projected to experience the sharpest declines. The Middle East and Africa are forecast to decline 20.6 per cent annually. China is predicted to weaken 10.5 per cent, whilst Asia-Pacific excluding Japan and China will fall 13.1 per cent.