ICDX forecasts crude oil prices at 95-100 US dollars per barrel
Jakarta — The Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) has forecasted crude oil prices to range between 95-100 US dollars per barrel in 2026.
“Looking at the current market situation and developments, crude oil prices are expected to maintain strong bullish potential through the second half of this year. Resistance levels are projected at around 95-100 US dollars per barrel, with support levels around 80-75 US dollars per barrel,” stated Girta Putra Yoga, head of research and development at ICDX, in an official statement in Jakarta on Friday.
He noted that expectations for strengthened global crude oil prices have emerged again at the beginning of 2026.
The reaffirmation of commitment from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) alliance, stating that it will maintain production through December 2026, has served as a catalyst driving crude oil prices upward.
Additionally, according to Yoga, geopolitical tensions marking the opening of 2026—ranging from the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by US military forces, US President Donald Trump’s desire to acquire Greenland from Denmark, to the commencement of US-Iran conflict—have pushed crude oil prices back up to touch 90 US dollars per barrel in early March 2026, compared to 57 US dollars per barrel in early January 2026.
“The indicators being monitored will continue to focus on developments in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, OPEC+ production policies, and Trump’s trade tariff policies,” he said.
For 2025, he continued, presented a challenging era for the crude oil commodity. The average price of this “black gold” recorded a decline of more than 21 percent to 60 US dollars per barrel at the end of 2025, compared to the average price at the beginning of the year which reached 77 US dollars per barrel.
In the first half, crude oil prices declined by nearly 10 percent, with average prices traded in the region of 69 US dollars per barrel.
The movement of global crude oil prices was shadowed by the pressure of trade war imposed by Trump against China and several of its major trading partners such as Canada and Mexico.
As a result, according to Yoga, average crude oil prices were observed moving bearish or declining to touch 62 US dollars per barrel in May, before subsequently strengthening following the US and China agreeing to a 90-day tariff pause.
Prices were said to continue strengthening through the end of the first quarter, supported by signals of escalating conflict in the Middle East following Israel’s regime’s launch of the “Rising Lion” operation against Iran.
However, he revealed that this strengthening trend did not last long.
Entering the opening of the second half, the threat of higher US tariffs, despite negotiations conducted with good faith by several countries, put renewed pressure on crude oil prices.
“Furthermore, signals from the OPEC+ alliance group to increase production, and the commencement of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire in October caused global crude oil prices to move bearish throughout the second half of 2025. Average prices experienced a decline of nearly 13 percent, and were traded in the region of 64 US dollars per barrel,” he stated.