Hormuz Strait Blockade Pressures Supply, Oil Prices Hold Above 90 US Dollars

Global oil prices are tending to hold at high levels. The market is responding to signals that the United States (US) and Iran are opening possibilities to extend the ceasefire and continue peace negotiations. Citing Bloomberg on Thursday (16/4/2026), Brent crude oil prices held below 95 US dollars per barrel after closing relatively flat in the previous trading session. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices hovered around 91 US dollars per barrel. Sources familiar with the discussions indicated that Washington and Tehran are considering extending the ceasefire for two weeks to provide additional time for the peace negotiation process. The US has imposed a blockade to limit Iranian traffic, while Tehran has closed the route to most other vessels. The commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, Ali Abdollahi, assessed that a prolonged Hormuz Strait blockade could signal a violation of the ceasefire. He warned that Iran would not permit export or import activities in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Red Sea if the blockade persists. Financial officials gathered in Washington this week also expressed concerns over the uncertainty surrounding the conflict’s direction. New Zealand’s Finance Minister, Nicola Willis, even stated that the war has “made the world poorer.” Although current oil prices are still about a third higher than before the war, they have declined from the peaks reached at the start of the conflict. Moreover, several physical market indicators, such as Dated Brent, show different pressures compared to futures contract prices. A similar view was expressed by ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy, Warren Patterson. He believes the market is now beginning to anticipate de-escalation of the conflict, although the risk of price increases remains open. “The oil market has not yet fully reflected the real conditions. Currently, more people are predicting that the conflict will subside.”