Haunted by Geopolitical Uncertainty - Mirae Says Investment Opportunities Remain Open

Jakarta - Global interest rate dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty continue to be the primary factors influencing market direction in the second quarter of 2026. Geopolitical conflicts, including tensions in the Middle East that affect global trade routes, are also driving inflationary pressures and slowing economic growth. “Volatility is part of global dynamics, but with relatively stable domestic fundamentals, investment opportunities in the Indonesian market remain open,” said Head of Research & Chief Economist at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Rully Arya Wisnubroto, in Jakarta yesterday. Rully added that the room for interest rate easing is likely limited amid inflation and oil price pressures, although Indonesia’s economic growth is still projected at around 5.0% in 2026. From a sectoral perspective, Research Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Daniel Aditya Widjaja, stated that telecommunications operators are showing a stronger recovery than expected. He noted that the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) for two major operators, Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison (ISAT) and XLSmart (EXCL), recorded its highest level in the fourth quarter of 2025. “This ARPU achievement reflects the industry’s shift from price competition to value-based competition,” said Daniel. He added that growth potential is also driven by the GPU-as-a-Service (GPUaaS) business, which is starting to contribute to ISAT’s revenue, with an estimated contribution of around USD50–70 million in 2026. Additionally, Telkom’s plan to spin off its fibre assets is seen as potentially driving a special dividend payout with an estimated yield of around 12–13% in 2026. Mirae Asset Sekuritas maintains an overweight recommendation for the telecommunications sector, with EXCL as the top pick supported by potential EBITDA growth of 17.7% year-on-year in fiscal year 2026. Meanwhile, Senior Technical Analyst at PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas, Muhammad Nafan Aji, believes that market volatility opens opportunities for investors to enter selectively. “Volatility opens opportunities through strategies to hunt for discounted stocks with a value investing approach. Dividend momentum and issuer performance can be utilised for gradual accumulation, especially in commodity stocks and big caps,” said Nafan. Technically, the JCI is expected to move within a support range of 7,346–7,447 and resistance of 7,677–7,774 in the short term. In his presentation, Nafan also highlighted several attractive big cap stocks for accumulation in the second quarter of 2026, including ADRO, BBCA, BBRI, BBNI, BMRI, and EXCL. Additionally, commodity-based stocks such as ANTM, BRMS, UNTR, and MDKA are also seen as attractive amid strong gold prices and global geopolitical dynamics.