Harsh responses to Muslim separatists risk increased terror, say

Harsh responses to Muslim separatists risk increased terror, say
analysts

Lawrence Bartlett
Agence France-Presse/Kuala Lumpur

Harsh government responses to separatist violence in Thailand and
the Philippines risk drawing international terrorists more deeply
into the region, analysts say.

Conflicts in Muslim areas of Buddhist Thailand and the mainly
Christian Philippines have been fueled by local issues but are
getting increasing attention from militants outside the region,
they say.

Arab websites supporting Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda network
have begun "highlighting the Thai issue," said Rohan Gunaratna, a
terrorism expert with Singapore's Institute of Defense and
Strategic Studies.

"Prologation of this conflict will mean greater involvement of
other regional groups and global groups like al-Qaeda."

The southern Philippines, where separatist conflicts have
raged for decades, already has a "permanent al-Qaeda presence",
Gunaratna told AFP.

Increasing foreign involvement, particularly in Thailand, is
"certainly a risk," said Robert Broadfoot of the Hong Kong-based
Political and Economic Consultancy.

"The grievances in southern Thailand are local but as we saw
in Indonesia and the Philippines, al-Qaeda and international
groups have been able to take advantage of those local
situations.

"Their scope has broadened beyond strictly domestic issues to
where they are commenting on United States policy in Iraq and
international issues."

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and Philippines
President Gloria Arroyo both pledged tough action against
separatists in the wake of bomb attacks last week which killed a
total of 16 people and wounded nearly 200.

Ten were killed in three blasts in the Philippines and six in
the deadliest single bombing in Thailand's Muslim-dominated deep
south, where separatist violence has claimed about 600 lives in
the past 13 months.

Arroyo vowed to crush the rebel group Abu Sayyaf, which
claimed the Valentine's Day bombings and is said by the United
States to have al-Qaeda links, but added: "The government shall
focus its operations against terrorist cells and there should be
no fear of a witch hunt."

Thaksin, however, has unveiled a plan to cut state funds to
villages deemed supportive of southern separatists.

With Muslims already complaining of political and economic
marginalization, critics say the new plan will simply make things
worse.

Increased Muslim suffering could make southern Thailand a
fertile area for exploitation by al-Qaeda militants, Gunaratna
said.

"We saw on Jan. 5 an Arab website for the first time carrying
images of the Tak Bai incident" in which 87 Muslim demonstrators
died, most of them through suffocation after being piled onto the
backs of army trucks.

"And we are seeing Arab pro-al-Qaeda websites are highlighting
the Thai issue, so certainly it is in the long term strategic and
national interest of Thailand to resolve this problem as soon as
possible."

Thaksin has charged that militants seek refuge across the
border in mainly Muslim Malaysia and even train in the jungles in
the north of that country, accusations which have led to sharp
exchanges with Kuala Lumpur.

Instead of antagonizing Malaysia, Gunaratna said Thailand
should seek a special relationship with its Muslim neighbor,
establishing common data bases on militants, setting up joint
training and operations and sharing resources and experience.

"We are seeing that the operational leaders and the spiritual
leaders are shuttling through the porous border between Malaysia
and Thailand but we do not see any Malaysian government support
for these groups," Gunaratna said.

Broadfoot pointed out that "the Malaysian government has at
least as much interest as Thaksin does in not having this get out
of hand".