Government Targets Rp2.041 Trillion in Investment Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The Ministry of Investment and Downstreaming/BKPM projects an investment realisation of Rp497 trillion in the first quarter of 2026, despite the ongoing global geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continuing until Monday (13/4/2026). This projected figure indicates a 6.9% annual growth compared to the same period in 2025, which recorded Rp465 trillion, as reported by Ekonomi. The Rp497 trillion investment realisation is estimated to absorb 627,036 new workers, an increase of 5.5% from the previous year’s achievement of 594,104 people. The 2026 investment target set by President Prabowo Subianto is the highest in history, reaching Rp2,041.3 trillion, or a 7.12% rise from last year’s target. Minister of Investment and Downstreaming Rosan Perkasa Roeslani stated that Indonesia’s non-aligned foreign policy is an advantage in attracting foreign investors amid global uncertainty. “We see that this opportunity is always open and available because Indonesia is a country accepted by all nations,” said Rosan Perkasa Roeslani, Minister of Investment and Downstreaming/Head of BKPM, during a meeting with Commission XII of the DPR. To date, countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea remain committed to investing in Indonesia, particularly in the resource downstreaming industry sector. The downstreaming sector itself contributed a realisation of Rp150.1 trillion, equivalent to 30.2% of the total investment achievement in the first quarter of this year. On the permitting side, the implementation of Government Regulation Number 28 of 2025 has driven the issuance of 1.8 million new Business Identification Numbers (NIB) from October 2025 to April 2026. Although business formalisation activities have increased, Bank Indonesia recorded a 5.4% decline in the Business Activity Expectations Index to 125.5 in March 2026 due to concerns over global conflicts. Head Economist of PT Bank Permata Tbk, Josua Pardede, assessed that economic actors are currently more selective and cautious in undertaking major expansions due to pressures from energy and logistics costs. The deadlock in negotiations between the United States and Iran strengthens the downside risks for business prospects that heavily depend on imported raw materials and foreign financing.