Government Preparations to Face a Global War: Purbaya Claims the State Budget Is Sound and Fuel Stocks Stand at 20 Days
Indonesia’s government says the state budget remains robust enough to weather global escalation, including potential rises in world oil prices. As long as the turmoil does not become extreme, the impact can be absorbed within the current APBN.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa said the government has run simulations of oil-price scenarios for the coming year. The calculations underpin the government’s ability to maintain fiscal resilience amid global uncertainty. ‘If the crisis is prolonged, can the budget withstand it? And what would the budget look like? Our analysis at present shows it is still adequate, so there is no problem,’ Purbaya told reporters at the Istana on Tuesday evening (3 March 2026).
According to him, government revenue performed better at the start of the year. Tax and customs revenue in January–February 2026 rose by around 30% compared with the same period last year. ‘That is a very significant figure. It means there is a meaningful improvement in the economy and in people’s behaviour, particularly taxes and customs,’ he said.
He emphasised that the government has calculated oil-price rise scenarios at specified levels for one fiscal year. As long as the increases stay within the simulated range, the APBN is capable of absorbing the pressure. ‘If prices rise but not extremely high, we can absorb it; if it’s extreme we will recalculate,’ he added.
Fuel stocks
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia said Indonesia’s fuel stock is strong for 20 days. He made the remark during a meeting with President Prabowo Subianto at the State Palace on Monday (2 March 2026).
He then said he will increase storage capacity from the current 25–26 days to 90 days (three months). ‘In fact, our energy resilience and storage capacity currently max out at about 25–26 days, not more than that,’ he said at a press conference on the latest developments in the Middle East and implications for the ESDM sector, held at the ESDM Ministry in Jakarta on Tuesday (3 March 2026).
That statement addresses the comparison between Indonesia’s energy resilience and Japan’s. Indonesia’s stock can last less than 30 days, whereas Japan has 254 days of stock. The gap is due to Indonesia’s limited storage capacity. ‘Now, if we import that much (as Japan does), where would we put the fuel? That’s our problem,’ he said.
Therefore, the government is working to build storage with a capacity of 90 days or three months to align with international standards. A feasibility study for the storage project is ongoing. Bahlil aims to start construction in 2026, with a planned site in Sumatra.
For current oil resilience, he said stocks of crude oil, refined petroleum products (BBM), and LPG are above the national minimum resilience standard, which is 23 days. ‘So, in relation to Eid al-Fitr and the Ramadan period, alhamdulillah I can say that BBM, crude oil, and LPG stocks are all above the national minimum standard,’ he said.
Indonesia’s energy security has become a focus amid the US–Israel–Iran conflict.