Government Debt Nears Rp 10,000 Trillion, Burden on State Budget Comes Under Scrutiny

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – The government’s debt position continues to rise and is approaching Rp 10,000 trillion in the first quarter of 2026. Amid this increase, economists are beginning to spotlight its impact on the state budget and the government’s fiscal space. The Directorate General of Financing and Risk Management (DJPPR) of the Ministry of Finance recorded the total government debt at Rp 9,920.42 trillion as of 31 March 2026. This figure rose by approximately Rp 282.52 trillion or 2.9 percent compared to the end-of-December 2025 position of Rp 9,637.99 trillion. In ratio terms, the government debt equates to 40.75 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 40.46 percent at the end of last year. Of the total debt, the majority still comes from the issuance of Government Securities (SBN), amounting to Rp 8,652.89 trillion or about 87.22 percent of total government debt. Meanwhile, the loan component is recorded at Rp 1,267.52 trillion or about 12.78 percent. “The government manages debt prudently and in a measured manner to achieve an optimal debt portfolio and support the development of the domestic financial market,” stated DJPPR of the Ministry of Finance in its official report, quoted on Saturday (9/5/2026). Economist from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE) Indonesia, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, assesses that Indonesia’s current fiscal issues cannot be viewed solely from the size of the debt-to-GDP ratio. According to Yusuf, the indicator that needs attention is instead the ratio of debt interest payments to state revenues, which is now approaching 16.7 percent. This means that for every Rp 100 in state revenues, around Rp 16 to Rp 17 is used to pay debt interest. This condition is seen as starting to narrow the government’s fiscal space because a portion of state revenues has already been absorbed to pay debt interest before being allocated for development spending, subsidies, education, or health. “The problem is not just the amount of debt, but the burden that arises to maintain that debt,” said Yusuf. He also highlighted Indonesia’s primary balance condition, which is once again experiencing a fairly deep deficit. This indicates that state revenues are no longer sufficient to cover spending needs excluding debt interest payments, so the government needs to take on new debt. According to Yusuf, this situation can trigger a cycle of fiscal pressure because the rise in interest burden will be followed by increased financing needs and higher debt costs.