GOTO Accelerates Fintech Expansion, Analysts Highlight Regulatory Risks

JAKARTA - The prospects of PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO) in 2026 are still seen as promising. Growth is supported by the company’s continuously expanding financial technology or fintech segment.

GOTO’s management recorded outstanding consumer loans reaching Rp 8.8 trillion by December 2025. This realisation aligns with the loan expansion target set above Rp 8 trillion at the end of last year.

Loan growth is progressing aggressively. Outstanding loans rose 68% year-on-year (yoy). In line with this expansion, revenue from the lending business surged 95% yoy to Rp 3.8 trillion.

Managing Director of Research at Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia, Harry Su, assesses that GOTO’s fintech expansion room remains wide. This is driven by the high population of unbanked individuals, still around 50%.

“Currently, fintech contributes around 26% to adjusted EBITDA,” Harry told Kontan on Wednesday (1/4/2026).

Specifically for Q4 2025, the group’s adjusted EBITDA jumped 106% to Rp 672 billion. The same period the previous year recorded Rp 326 billion.

Based on these achievements, GOTO has set a higher target for 2026. The company aims for adjusted EBITDA in the range of Rp 3.2 trillion to Rp 3.4 trillion, or growth of around 60% yoy.

Harry also assesses that GOTO’s credit quality remains well-maintained. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has been in the range of 0.6% to 0.7% over the last three quarters.

This condition is supported by an accurate credit scoring system and the utilisation of the ecosystem through TikTok and Tokopedia.

Although the prospects appear positive, risks remain. One highlighted issue is the government’s plan to lower the commission cap or cap rate on on-demand services.

This policy could pressure GOTO’s revenue. The distribution portion is assessed to flow more substantially to partners.

“This could potentially pressure GOTO’s top line in the future,” he explained.

Meanwhile, total costs and expenses increased 3.12% yoy to Rp 17.70 trillion. The previous year recorded Rp 18.13 trillion.

Efficiency improvements have impacted loss reduction. The net loss attributable to the parent entity’s owners shrank 77% yoy to Rp 1.18 trillion. The previous year reached Rp 5.15 trillion.

Amid these opportunities and risks, Harry provides a buy recommendation with a target share price for GOTO at Rp 70 per share.