Golkar's win certain next year: Expert

YOGYAKARTA (JP): With the backing of the Armed Forces (ABRI), the civil service and 250 mass organizations, Golkar will clinch a landslide victory in next year's election, a political analyst predicted yesterday.

Afan Gaffar, a political scholar from Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University, told a seminar that Golkar will win more than 70 percent of the 425 contested seats in the House of Representatives next year.

According to Afan, there is no way the PPP and PDI can beat Golkar, which has much better human and financial resources.

"The four pillars of Indonesian politics -- the president, Armed Forces, civil servants and bureaucracy, which is supported by business tycoons -- are all behind Golkar," he said.

In the 1992 election, Golkar won 282 (or 68 percent) seats in the House. Its rivals, the Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP) got 62 and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) 56.

Golkar officials have vowed they will try hard to recoup the seats that were lost to the PPP and PDI in the past election.

As of next year, the number of seats reserved for the Armed Forces -- which plays a dominant role in politics but does not compete in elections -- will be reduced from 100 to 75.

The 250 mass organizations affiliated to Golkar, along with the four million-strong civil service and their families, offer tremendous support for the ruling organization, he added.

The Armed Forces, which founded Golkar in 1964 to counter the Indonesian Communist Party, will not put political stability at stake by lessening its support of Golkar.

"This means that Armed Forces members and their families will still vote for Golkar in next year's election, because they don't want to see political stability undermined," he said.

Afan estimated that about 80 percent of key posts within Golkar are currently held by Armed Forces members.

He said that the PPP and PDI's chances of winning the election are slight.

The PPP, he argued, is experiencing an identity crisis. Now that Golkar is enjoying good relations with Moslem leaders, the PPP can no longer claim to be an Islamic party.

"Now the PPP cannot raise issues that concern Moslems the way it did in the 1987," he said. "In the 1980s, Moslems were subject to discriminatory treatment from the government, but not now."

Issues that the PPP can raise in next year's election are those related to social justice, he said. He suggested that the party maintain its traditional relations with Islamic boarding schools.

As for the PDI, Afan predicted the minority party would not be able to significantly improve its performance, because its image has been badly dented by its notorious leadership rift.

"At the local level, PDI's leadership is in chaos. At the central level, the leadership is constantly undermined by discontented politicians," he said.

An advantage that the PDI has in the upcoming election, he said, is its popular leader, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter of the late president Sukarno.

Besides, the PDI has successfully built its image as the "common people's party", which is committed to defend the interests of the average citizen, he said. (har/pan)