Golkar's win certain next year: Expert<\/p>\n
YOGYAKARTA (JP): With the backing of the Armed Forces (ABRI),
\nthe civil service and 250 mass organizations, Golkar will clinch
\na landslide victory in next year's election, a political analyst
\npredicted yesterday.<\/p>\n
Afan Gaffar, a political scholar from Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada
\nUniversity, told a seminar that Golkar will win more than 70
\npercent of the 425 contested seats in the House of
\nRepresentatives next year.<\/p>\n
According to Afan, there is no way the PPP and PDI can beat
\nGolkar, which has much better human and financial resources.<\/p>\n
\"The four pillars of Indonesian politics -- the president,
\nArmed Forces, civil servants and bureaucracy, which is supported
\nby business tycoons -- are all behind Golkar,\" he said.<\/p>\n
In the 1992 election, Golkar won 282 (or 68 percent) seats in
\nthe House. Its rivals, the Moslem-oriented United Development
\nParty (PPP) got 62 and the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) 56.<\/p>\n
Golkar officials have vowed they will try hard to recoup the
\nseats that were lost to the PPP and PDI in the past election.<\/p>\n
As of next year, the number of seats reserved for the Armed
\nForces -- which plays a dominant role in politics but does not
\ncompete in elections -- will be reduced from 100 to 75.<\/p>\n
The 250 mass organizations affiliated to Golkar, along with
\nthe four million-strong civil service and their families, offer
\ntremendous support for the ruling organization, he added.<\/p>\n
The Armed Forces, which founded Golkar in 1964 to counter the
\nIndonesian Communist Party, will not put political stability at
\nstake by lessening its support of Golkar.<\/p>\n
\"This means that Armed Forces members and their families will
\nstill vote for Golkar in next year's election, because they don't
\nwant to see political stability undermined,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Afan estimated that about 80 percent of key posts within
\nGolkar are currently held by Armed Forces members.<\/p>\n
He said that the PPP and PDI's chances of winning the election
\nare slight.<\/p>\n
The PPP, he argued, is experiencing an identity crisis. Now
\nthat Golkar is enjoying good relations with Moslem leaders, the
\nPPP can no longer claim to be an Islamic party.<\/p>\n
\"Now the PPP cannot raise issues that concern Moslems the way
\nit did in the 1987,\" he said. \"In the 1980s, Moslems were subject
\nto discriminatory treatment from the government, but not now.\"<\/p>\n
Issues that the PPP can raise in next year's election are
\nthose related to social justice, he said. He suggested that the
\nparty maintain its traditional relations with Islamic boarding
\nschools.<\/p>\n
As for the PDI, Afan predicted the minority party would not be
\nable to significantly improve its performance, because its image
\nhas been badly dented by its notorious leadership rift.<\/p>\n
\"At the local level, PDI's leadership is in chaos. At the
\ncentral level, the leadership is constantly undermined by
\ndiscontented politicians,\" he said.<\/p>\n
An advantage that the PDI has in the upcoming election, he
\nsaid, is its popular leader, Megawati Soekarnoputri, the daughter
\nof the late president Sukarno.<\/p>\n
Besides, the PDI has successfully built its image as the
\n\"common people's party\", which is committed to defend the
\ninterests of the average citizen, he said. (har\/pan)<\/p>",
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