Goldman Sachs Warns of US-Iran War: This Industry Could Collapse!
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is predicted to have a far greater impact on refined oil products such as jet fuel (avtur) and diesel than on crude oil itself. The American investment banking giant, Goldman Sachs, warns that this situation could trigger severe shocks to the global energy supply chain.
In its latest report released on Wednesday (18/03/2026), the financial services company states that the conflict has damaged the Arab Gulf’s ability to export refined oil products. The most felt impact currently is hitting the supply of jet fuel for the European market and naphtha for the Asian market.
Around 60% of crude oil exports from the Arab Gulf are medium-heavy crude types, which are the main raw materials for producing jet fuel and diesel. This condition poses a major challenge because there are not many alternative producers for these refined products outside the Middle East region.
“Prices have surged much higher for many refined products compared to crude oil, with jet fuel prices in Singapore and Northwest Europe recording all-time highs above US$200 per barrel last week,” Goldman Sachs wrote in its report, quoted on Wednesday (18/3/2026).
Goldman Sachs added that while it sees the largest direct effects coming from the hit to Arab Gulf exports of refined products for European jet fuel and Asian naphtha, severe disruptions to medium-heavy crude oil supplies pose major downside risks to global production. This includes production of diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil overall.
Based on the Argus US Jet Fuel Index, the average jet fuel price in the United States reached US$3.99 per gallon on 15 March 2026. This figure marks a very significant increase from the US$2.50 per gallon recorded just two weeks before the conflict broke out in the region.
The report also outlines that the ongoing conflict has led to the closure of several oil refineries in the affected areas. This step drastically reduces global production volume for commodities like diesel, jet fuel, and fuel oil that are highly needed by international markets.
According to Goldman Sachs’ analysis, the global oil market disruptions triggered by the war could also impact naphtha output and distribution. Naphtha itself is a refinery byproduct used as the main raw material in producing various petrochemical products.
The analysis reveals that nearly 50% of Asia’s naphtha imports and 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports come from the Arab Gulf. This high dependence on one region makes the market extremely vulnerable to political and security turmoil in the Middle East.