Goldman Sachs Predicts Global Oil Reserves Will Last 101 Days
Jakarta – In addition to persistently high prices, global oil supplies have come under scrutiny since the outbreak of the conflict between the United States (US) and Iran. Goldman Sachs estimates that oil reserves will only be sufficient for around three months ahead due to distribution disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
In its latest report, the investment bank calculates the total global oil stock, both crude oil and refined products, at approximately 101 days. This figure is projected to shrink to just 98 days of demand by the end of May 2026.
Citing CNBC International, Goldman Sachs states that these global oil reserves have not yet reached critical levels, but the rapid rate of stock depletion and uneven distribution are heightening the risk of shortages in certain regions. Easily accessible refined product reserves are reported to be continuously shrinking, particularly for petrochemical raw materials such as naphtha and LPG, as well as jet fuel.
Furthermore, the US-based financial institution highlights the potential for energy product shortages in several countries due to export restrictions that hinder supply distribution. Those countries include South Africa, India, Thailand, and Taiwan.
In agreement, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth has expressed concerns that fuel shortages are becoming increasingly real, especially if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. He warns that an energy crisis will occur in the near future and impact all sectors.
“I think when people see the reality of very tight supply, it’s not just about price. The question is, can we get the fuel? In the coming weeks, the impact will start to be felt across the system,” said Wirth.
Global oil prices have seen a slight correction after a sharp surge in the previous session. The Brent crude contract for July delivery fell 1.26 per cent to US$113 per barrel.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) weakened 2.12 per cent to US$104.16 per barrel. Previously, both benchmarks had surged 6 per cent and 4 per cent respectively.
Tensions between the US and Iran continue to overshadow global oil prices. The latest developments indicate that a ceasefire is on the brink of failure following drone and missile attacks on the United Arab Emirates by Iran.