Gold Surges Past US$5,300 Amid Escalating Geopolitical Tensions
Gold prices have surged as the global market anticipates continued strength in gold demand as a safe-haven asset amid intensifying conflict between the US-Israel and Iran, which has escalated tensions in recent weeks.
Reports of casualties and infrastructure damage following the outbreak of conflict on Saturday of last week (28 February 2026) continue to mount, triggering global concerns and heightening uncertainty in financial markets.
This situation has directly reflected in gold price movements, which have once again become the focus of attention as a hedge asset amid geopolitical turmoil.
On Monday (2 March 2026) at 06:28 WIB, gold prices had already jumped 1.4 per cent to US$5,360.49 per troy ounce. This marks the first time gold has returned to the US$5,300 level since December 2025.
According to Refinitiv data, global gold prices closed at US$5,277.29 or strengthened 1.74 per cent in Friday trading (27 February 2026). This level also represents the highest in the past month, or since 30 January 2026. On a weekly basis, global gold prices have strengthened 3.41 per cent.
Market participants are projecting that gold prices will continue to rise due to the escalating chaos of the US-Israel versus Iran conflict.
Citing various reports from international financial institutions compiled by Kitco, perspectives on gold prospects in the short term are quite varied.
According to the latest JP Morgan update, demand from central banks and investors this year will ultimately drive gold prices to reach US$6,300 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.
ANZ also estimates that gold prices could rise further, breaking through US$5,800 per troy ounce in the second quarter of this year.
This optimism is supported by several key factors.
Firstly, gold purchases by central banks, particularly from developing countries, are continuing at an average of around 60 tonnes per month as a step to diversify away from the US dollar.
Secondly, concerns about US fiscal deficits and surging US government debt are prompting institutional investors to view gold as protection against systemic risks.
Thirdly, expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve provide positive sentiment for gold, which generates no interest returns. Fourthly, unresolved geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty heading into mid-term elections in the United States continue to maintain the appeal of gold as a safe asset.
Nevertheless, not all projections are entirely optimistic.
HSBC analysts caution that whilst gold is known as a safe-haven asset, its price remains vulnerable to fluctuations.
Citigroup has also issued a warning note, estimating a 50 per cent chance of a downside scenario with prices falling to the US$3,650 level if the US economy enters a phase of stable growth with controlled inflation and geopolitical risks recede significantly.