Gold Shares vs Physical Gold: Understanding the Potential Amid Global Uncertainty
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – Global uncertainty is once again on the rise as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensify, involving Iran, the United States, and Israel. In such conditions, gold continues to attract attention as a safe-haven asset.
However, a relevant question arises: is physical gold still the primary choice, or do shares with exposure to the gold commodity offer different growth opportunities?
Historical Performance of Gold and Gold-Based Shares
From 2 January 2020 to 17 March 2026, the price of gold (XAU/IDR) rose from around Rp 683,749 to Rp 2,732,617 per gram, representing growth of approximately 299.64%.
This increase reaffirms gold’s role as a relatively stable hedging instrument amid global dynamics. Even in early 2026, gold prices reached an all-time high with significant movements, surpassing three million rupiah per gram.
The observation period begins from early 2020 and covers about 5-6 years, representing one cycle of global market dynamics from crisis phase, recovery, to ongoing volatility.
The data used refers to the TradingView platform, with a timeframe up to 17 March 2026, when the market was still active before the long Eid al-Fitr holiday.
This analysis was prepared during that holiday period, so price movements are deemed to reasonably represent normal market conditions before the trading break.
It should be noted that the gold prices used refer to global market data (XAU) converted to rupiah, which may differ slightly from retail gold prices and do not always reflect direct retail investor transaction prices.
Compared to shares in gold-based companies, historical results show varying performance. Shares of Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) recorded an increase of about 343.79%, while J Resources Asia Pasifik Tbk (PSAB) grew by around 102.29%.
Meanwhile, Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk (BRMS) recorded a significant rise of up to 1,411.11%. Hartadinata Abadi Tbk (HRTA) also posted historical growth of around 1,040.91%.
This data is merely illustrative, reflecting the historical performance of each share, and is not an investment recommendation. Not all gold-based shares follow the same pattern.
Simulation of Potential Investment Returns
The following simple simulation is based solely on historical data; future results are not guaranteed and may vary depending on market conditions. The illustration shows the potential differences in investment returns between physical gold and gold-based shares.
With an initial capital of Rp 100 million, gold would grow to around Rp 399 million, while gold-based shares show higher historical results: Rp 443 million for ANTM, around Rp 1.14 billion for HRTA, and Rp 1.51 billion for BRMS.
These figures only depict historical growth and do not account for risks, transaction costs, taxes, or other technical factors. Nevertheless, these represent gross profits.
For gold, there are bid-ask spreads and taxes, while for shares, there are transaction fees, sales taxes, and other technical factors. Thus, the real returns received by investors (net profit) will differ depending on the cost and tax structures of each instrument.
Efficiency and Transaction Ease
From an efficiency perspective, shares offer electronic transaction convenience and relatively straightforward final taxes, whereas physical gold involves implicit costs such as spreads, storage, and transportation that can affect potential investment returns.
Influence of Macro and Geopolitical Factors
Interestingly, amid rising global tensions, gold prices do not always respond with significant movements as in previous crises.
Factors such as expectations of high US interest rates, strengthening of the US dollar, and prior gold price increases act as brakes on further rises. The mechanism is simple: high interest rates → increased opportunity cost of holding gold → relatively stable gold demand → restrained price movements.
Additionally, global capital flows may shift to the US dollar or fixed-income instruments, such as bonds and coupon-bearing debt securities, depending on market conditions and yield levels.
This indicates that gold as a safe haven is relative, depending on the macroeconomic context like interest rates and exchange rates, as well as investor sentiment towards global risks.
Long-Term Investment Strategies
Price movements in gold and gold-based shares, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as interest rate directions, inflation, exchange rates, and geopolitical developments, can be leveraged for long-term investment strategies.
Investors are advised to understand risks and potential price fluctuations before making decisions, and to consider diversification strategies and discipline in portfolio management.
Conclusion: The Role of Gold and Gold-Based Shares
Ultimately, physical gold and gold-based shares each have their roles. Gold offers stability as a hedge, while shares provide more aggressive growth potential with higher risks.
The key to success lies not only in choosing the instrument but in understanding timing, discipline in strategy, and the ability to read global market dynamics.