Gold Price Projection for 2026 Could Reach 6,000 US Dollars per Troy Ounce
Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (ICDX) projects gold prices to range between 5,500–6,000 US dollars per troy ounce through the end of 2026 with elevated volatility amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
When roughly converted to domestic gold prices, this range equates to approximately 2.9 million to 3.2 million rupiah per gram, depending on the rupiah exchange rate and domestic market prices.
“Several global financial institutions have raised their gold price projections for 2026, driven by persistent global geopolitical risks and structural demand from central banks. This reflects increasingly strengthened rally expectations amid geopolitical uncertainty and aggressive purchases by central banks,” said ICDX Research and Development Analyst Tiffani Safinia.
According to a Reuters poll of 30 international analysts and traders, the median gold price projection for 2026 stands at 4,746.50 US dollars per troy ounce, a significant jump from the 4,275 US dollar estimate released in October 2025.
At the institutional level, Goldman Sachs Group Inc has revised upward its end-2026 gold price target to 5,400 US dollars per troy ounce from the previous 4,900 US dollars. JP Morgan also projects gold prices reaching 6,300 US dollars per troy ounce. Morgan Stanley has set an average projection of 4,600 US dollars with a bullish scenario reaching 5,700 US dollars per troy ounce in the second half of 2026.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank projects gold prices reaching 6,000 US dollars per troy ounce this year, CITI Research at 5,000 US dollars per troy ounce, and UBS at 6,200 US dollars per troy ounce.
According to ICDX, gold movements are influenced by surging energy prices that briefly triggered inflation concerns. The US dollar and yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds also fluctuated as markets estimated the direction of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
In the current environment, the US dollar and US Treasury bond yields are considered more dominant factors compared to the safe-haven sentiment from geopolitical conflicts.
Looking back at the previous year, Tiffani stated that 2025 was one of the best years for gold in several decades, reinforcing the commodity’s role as a safe-haven asset and diversification instrument amid global uncertainty.
Throughout 2025, gold prices rose significantly by 64 per cent with 53 all-time high records set. The highest record was recorded at 4,550 US dollars per troy ounce on 26 December 2025. Additionally, average gold prices stood around 3,431 US dollars per troy ounce, whilst central bank gold purchases reached approximately 863 tonnes.
“Several sentiments that drove gold increases in 2025 included three interest rate cuts totalling 75 basis points through Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, the Middle East conflict (Israel–Iran), the Russia–Ukraine war, and US–China tensions,” she added.
Furthermore, total gold purchases by central banks reached approximately 863 tonnes, whilst US dollar movements tended to fluctuate due to uncertainty regarding monetary policy direction and interest rate expectations, which also increased investment allocations to gold.
“This provides a picture that the combination of macro and geopolitical factors drove the gold rally throughout 2025,” Tiffani Safinia concluded.