Global Oil Prices Surge Ahead of Trump's Ultimatum Deadline to Iran

Global oil prices rose and reached their highest levels since mid-2022. This increase occurred as market participants monitored US President Donald Trump’s ultimatum to Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Citing Bloomberg on Monday (23/3/2026), the global benchmark Brent crude price broke through $113 per barrel and has risen for five consecutive days. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price traded near $100 per barrel. Tehran responded with a warning that it would attack critical infrastructure in the Middle East region if the threat is realised. The oil price surge occurred amid escalating conflicts. Since the US and Israeli attacks on Iran at the end of February, Brent crude prices have jumped more than 50 percent. This situation has triggered concerns over the emergence of a new wave of global inflation, which could shake financial markets from commodities to stocks and bonds. Oil market analyst and founder of Commodity Context Corp, Rory Johnston, assessed that the ultimatum actually narrows Trump’s room to manoeuvre. He stated that it is unlikely Iran will meet the demands in a short time under the threat of attack. “Iran is clearly capable and ready to respond to any escalation,” he said. Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, even described the current disruption’s impact as equivalent to the combination of two major oil crises in the 1970s and the 2022 natural gas crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The investment bank estimated that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be only about 5 percent of normal conditions over the next six weeks, before recovering gradually. On the ground, the conflict continues. Israel launched another attack on Iran on Monday, after Iran previously fired missiles and drones at several targets in the region. This conflict has entered its 24th day, twice as long as a similar crisis last year. Uncertainty over the direction of Trump’s policy also poses an additional challenge for investors. Shortly before issuing the ultimatum, he had considered reducing US military involvement.