Global Oil Prices Surge 20 Per Cent Amid Warfare; Trump: Will Decline Rapidly

Global oil prices have surged sharply, exceeding the $100 per barrel threshold amid escalating warfare between the United States, Israel and Iran. However, US President Donald Trump has expressed confidence that this sudden surge will decline rapidly in the short term.

Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, rose more than 20 per cent, exceeding the $114 per barrel level during trading on Sunday, 8 March 2026, locally equivalent to approximately 1.93 million rupiah per barrel (based on an estimated exchange rate of 16,960 rupiah per US dollar). Brent crude futures contracts surged 26.1 per cent, reaching $116.08 per barrel, or approximately 1,962,752 rupiah per barrel, during morning trading on Monday, 9 March 2026.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil jumped 27.6 per cent to $116.03 per barrel, or approximately 1.96 million rupiah per barrel. This sharp increase has occurred because market participants are concerned about prolonged disruptions to global energy supply.

Crude oil prices have recorded gains of approximately 50 per cent since the United States and Israel conducted a joint attack on Iran on 28 February 2026. The latest prices mark the first time global oil prices have exceeded the $100 per barrel threshold since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Nevertheless, President Trump has assessed that the rise in oil prices is only temporary in nature. He has even criticised views suggesting that global oil prices will continue to rise.

“Short-term oil prices will decline rapidly after Iran’s nuclear threat is eliminated. That is a very small price to pay for the security and peace of the United States and the world. Only fools would think otherwise,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, cited from Al Jazeera on Monday, 9 March 2026.

A similar viewpoint was expressed by US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. He anticipated that the surge in energy prices will not last long and affirmed that fuel price increases at petrol stations would likely be temporary.

Factors Driving Global Oil Price Increases

Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, following Iran’s suspension of shipping activities, have become the primary driver of global oil price increases. This maritime region is a strategic waterway through which approximately one-fifth of global oil supply passes, so closure of this route has triggered significant concerns throughout the global energy market.