Global Oil Prices Rise Nearly 3%, US-Iran Stalemate and Hormuz Disruptions Pressure Supplies
NEW YORK - Global oil prices rose nearly 3% and reached two-week highs at the end of trading on Monday (27/4/2026) local time, or Tuesday (28/4/2026) morning WIB.
The strengthening occurred amid the deadlock in peace talks between the United States (US) and Iran, as well as the still limited energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Citing Reuters, Brent crude oil prices rose $2.90 or 2.8% to $108.23 per barrel. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices rose $1.97 or 2.1% to $96.37 per barrel.
This increase marks Brent’s strengthening for six consecutive days for the first time since March 2025 and its highest close since 7 April 2026. WTI closed at its highest level since 13 April 2026.
US President Donald Trump is said to have discussed a new proposal from Iran regarding the resolution of the conflict with Tehran with his national security advisers. However, the war remains in a stalemate, and energy supplies from the region continue to be disrupted.
PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said the diplomatic stalemate causes millions of barrels of oil to fail to enter the international market every day.
“The diplomatic stalemate means that every day around 10 to 13 million barrels of oil fail to reach the international market, worsening the already tight oil supply conditions. Therefore, oil prices have only one direction, which is up,” he said.
Shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz also remains very limited. In the last 24 hours, only seven ships crossed the route, far below the pre-war average of around 140 ships per day before the Iran war broke out on 28 February.
Before the conflict began, around 20% of the world’s oil supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin praised the Iranian people for reportedly maintaining their independence amid pressure from the US and Israel. Putin also affirmed that Moscow would do everything possible to help Tehran.
The rise in oil prices has also sparked concerns about global inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to hold a meeting on Thursday this week.
Although the Iranian ceasefire temporarily reduced pressure to raise interest rates soon, market participants still expect high oil prices to drive inflation and force the ECB to raise rates by the end of the year.
Goldman Sachs has even raised its Q4-2026 oil price projection to $90 per barrel for Brent and $83 per barrel for WTI, in line with declining oil production from the Middle East.
“The current economic risks are greater than our base case for crude oil, due to the potential for further oil price increases, high prices of refined products, supply shortage risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven in a research note.