Global Oil Prices Plunge, Is Trump Deceiving Traders?
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Crude oil prices surged during Friday’s trading but plunged overall on a weekly basis.
According to Refinitiv, Brent crude closed at US$101.29 per barrel on Friday (8/5/2026). The price rose by US$1.23 or 1.23%, after surging up to 3% during the trading session.
Meanwhile, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures contract ended at US$95.42 per barrel, up 61 cents or 0.64%.
Yesterday’s rise broke a poor trend where oil prices had plummeted for the previous three days.
Over the week, Brent crude fell 6.36%. This weakening ended a two-week consecutive upward trend.
Meanwhile, WTI crude plunged 10.17% over the week. This weakening broke a three-week consecutive upward trend.
“We are currently still moving in place, and that is indeed normal. We are on the verge of a breakthrough in negotiations, or on the verge of the conflict breaking out again. Situations like this have happened often,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, quoted from Refinitiv.
“There is confidence in the market that a deal will be reached, and we will enter the next phase, namely a 30-day period to finalise the agreement between Iran and the United States,” Kilduff added.
Throughout Friday’s trading, traders saw the market moving sharply up and down, like a tennis ball being hit back and forth.
“We are still playing a game driven by headlines. Currently, the market is only reacting to developments on the sidelines,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.
Traders Bored with Trump’s Claims?
US forces and Iran clashed in the Gulf region, while the United Arab Emirates came under attack again as the United States awaits a response from Tehran to a proposal to end the conflict that began after the joint US-Israel airstrikes on Iran on 28 February.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday evening that the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to ease market concerns.
However, on Friday, Trump issued another ultimatum demanding that Iran halt its nuclear ambitions.
“How quickly supplies from Gulf countries can return to normal, the state of inventories as we enter the peak petrol consumption season, and what form sanctions will take after a deal is reached are important questions,” said John Evans, analyst from PVM Oil Associates.
He added that the US administration continues to exaggerate the prospects of easing tensions, and the market, which tends to be optimistic, keeps believing it.
“Interestingly, every time prices rebound, the increase is gradual and does not fully recover, so these false signals remain quite effective,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights.
Is There Price Manipulation?
Meanwhile, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating oil transactions worth US$7 billion conducted just before an important announcement from Donald Trump regarding the Iran war.
Most of those transactions were short positions, bets that oil prices would fall, carried out on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Those positions were opened right before Trump announced a delay in attacks, ceasefire, or other policy changes towards Iran that subsequently triggered a drop in oil prices.