Global Oil Prices Fall After Trump Claims Iran War Nearly Over
Global oil prices experienced a sharp decline following US President Donald Trump’s statement to CBS News on Monday, 9 March 2026, that the conflict with Iran is “nearly completely resolved” and that military operations are progressing far more rapidly than initially anticipated.
Trump’s remarks triggered an immediate market reaction. Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices, which had previously surged to approximately US$119 per barrel, reversed sharply downward.
However, market participants maintain that oil prices remain heavily influenced by geopolitical conditions, particularly as the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has not fully returned to normal operations. This strait accounts for approximately 20 per cent of global seaborne oil shipments, and continued disruptions are expected to maintain pressure on global energy supplies.
Capital analyst Kyle Rodda stated that the market is currently awaiting concrete evidence that the conflict has genuinely subsided. Marex CSC energy analyst Sasha Foss noted that Trump’s remarks have primarily provided the market with time to reassess the actual situation.
Additionally, the US government is believed to be sensitive to fuel price increases ahead of the midterm elections. According to data from the American Automobile Association, average petrol prices in the US reached approximately US$3.539 per gallon on Tuesday, 10 March 2026, up from approximately US$2.921 per gallon one month prior.
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz require security assurances for tanker vessels, insurance protection, and normally functioning ports in the Gulf region. Meanwhile, the temporary shutdown of several oil fields and refinery operations will require days to weeks to resume normal functioning.
On Tuesday morning, the United Arab Emirates announced that the Ruwais refinery, which has the capacity to process approximately 900,000 barrels of oil daily, has been temporarily halted as a precautionary measure following airborne attacks.