Global Oil Prices Expected to Surge Wildly This Week
JAKARTA - Global oil price movements are projected to “go wild” or become expensive at the start of this week, on Monday (23/3/2026). This surge is caused by the heating up of conflicts between Iran, Israel, and the United States (US).
Market and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi assesses that overall, global crude oil prices will still move within a wide range. He estimates the support level to be around $93.3 US per barrel. Meanwhile, the resistance is at $107.1 US per barrel.
“For crude oil, I see that next week it is likely to be traded at its support of 93.4 (US dollars per barrel). Then the resistance is likely to be breached at 107.1,” said Ibrahim to reporters on Sunday (22/3/2026).
According to him, the surge in crude oil is inseparable from the role of the Middle East region, particularly Iran, which is a major oil producer, especially for aviation fuel or jet fuel needs.
“Yes, because what is showing a fairly sharp increase is not crude oil but aviation crude oil, which impacts what? It impacts air transportation which is experiencing a fairly sharp increase, thus affecting inflation,” he explained.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its latest report highlighting various options to ease the pressure of oil prices on consumers. This comes amid global energy supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East.
In the report, the IEA assesses that the current supply crisis has the potential to become one of the largest disruptions in the history of the global energy market.
The IEA states that the conflict in the region has caused several major producers to significantly reduce oil production.
Quoted from Arab News on Sunday (22/3/2026), overall, Gulf countries have cut oil production by around 10 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to nearly 10 percent of global oil demand.
This situation is exacerbated by obstacles to the flow of crude oil shipments, resulting in a projected drastic drop in global supplies.
The IEA estimates that global oil supplies could plummet by around 8 million bpd in March 2026, mainly due to disruptions in export flows from the Middle East region.