Global Oil Prices Could Breach USD 100 Per Barrel
Global crude oil prices are predicted to breach the USD 100 per barrel threshold if geopolitical tensions continue to intensify in the Middle East. As of Monday afternoon, 2 March 2025, Brent crude was trading at USD 79 per barrel, up from Saturday’s close of USD 72.8 per barrel.
According to Trading Economics data, WTI crude oil futures were at USD 72.3 per barrel, a sharp increase from the previous level of USD 67.2 per barrel. Fahmy Radhi, a lecturer at the Faculty of Economics at Gadjah Mada University (UGM), stated that rising oil prices are an unavoidable consequence of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
If hostilities continue to escalate, crude prices will climb further. “If it expands, I estimate it could reach USD 100 per barrel,” said Fahmy on Monday, 2 March 2025.
Combined military action by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026 triggered retaliatory measures. The conflict shows no signs of subsiding. According to Daily Mail reporting on 2 March 2026, Donald Trump indicated that potential conflict with Iran could last for approximately four weeks ahead.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about global oil and gas supply chains. Fahmy stated that if global oil trade routes were shut down, logistics would be disrupted with consequent rises in global oil prices.
According to him, crude oil prices previously touched USD 100 per barrel during the major conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Based on historical data, crude oil surged past USD 100 per barrel in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. “It’s not ruled out that this could happen again,” he noted.
Indonesia, as the region’s largest oil importer, would feel the impact if oil prices reach that level. Fahmy stated that non-subsidised fuel such as Pertamax and higher grades would not be significantly affected, as their prices follow market mechanisms.
However, a surge in global oil prices could create a dilemma for the government bearing subsidised fuel costs such as Pertalite and diesel. If market prices are not increased, state spending on subsidies would rise significantly. Conversely, if prices are raised, this would trigger inflation.
“Because the conflict between the US-Israel and Iran is so intense, if it expands further, global oil prices could deteriorate further,” said Fahmy.