Global Oil Market Overshadowed by Panic, Supply Competition Intensifies

The global oil market is currently gripped by panic due to increasingly felt supply limitations. Amid investor concerns over the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire, market players are racing to secure crude oil available for immediate shipment. Citing Bloomberg on Sunday (12/4/2026), in the North Sea region—the world’s most important physical crude oil market—trading activity shows significant pressure. Over the past week, around 40 buying offers for oil cargoes were recorded, but only four received seller responses. Similar conditions are occurring in other regions, where oil refineries are becoming more aggressive in seeking supplies, even from unconventional sources. Market players assess this situation as reflecting a global crude oil shortage that will become more pronounced in the coming weeks. Supply disruptions from the Middle East are creating a major gap in the world’s energy distribution chain. The price surge also signals that several refineries in Europe may have to follow Asia’s lead by reducing production. Head of research at Sparta Commodities US, Neil Crosby, described the current market conditions as unhealthy. He believes the physical Brent oil price is already too high and could force European refineries to lower their operational levels in the near future. This physical market situation contrasts sharply with the futures market. Oil prices for June delivery have actually fallen around 13% in the past week, closing in the range of $95 per barrel, driven by optimism over the ceasefire. However, the reality of supply on the ground shows far greater pressure. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has indeed begun to increase, but it remains well below pre-conflict normal levels. Even if oil flows return to normal, the impact will not be felt immediately. It will take weeks for oil from the Gulf to reach refineries in Asia and Europe.