Global Interest Rates: Australia Rises, Russia Falls, Will Indonesia Follow?

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Ahead of the Bank Indonesia (BI) Rate decision today, Wednesday 20 May 2026, global central banks’ rate trends are worth noting. After all, the direction of central bank policy could indicate whether the world is still in a high-rate phase, moving to ease, or tightening again.

The BI Rate is currently at 4.75%, but the prospect of a rate rise is gaining traction.

According to a CNBC Indonesia poll of 15 participating institutions, nine expect BI to raise the BI Rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. Meanwhile six institutions project that the central bank will hold the policy rate at 4.75%.

In other words, the majority of market participants view a rate hike as the base scenario for this RDG. The rupiah’s growing weakness, combined with high external risks, makes room for the BI to hold rates again more limited.

Citing Trading Economics, the trend in policy rates among a number of countries remains restrained. Of 19 countries and regions monitored, most central banks have not changed their policy rates from the previous period.

Only Australia recorded a rate hike. Meanwhile Singapore, Mexico, Brazil, and Russia cut rates. The rest, including Indonesia, kept the policy rate at the previous level.

This condition shows that the direction of global monetary policy has not moved in one direction. Most central banks remain cautious, while some are starting to open room for easing.

Following is a list of policy rate trends in several countries:

From that list, 14 countries and regions still hold rates. This group includes Switzerland, Japan, the euro area, Canada, South Korea, China, the United Kingdom, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Argentina, and Turkey.

Australia was the only country to raise rates, from 4.10% to 4.35%, an increase of 25 basis points.

Meanwhile four countries were recorded as cutting rates. The largest cut occurred in Russia, from 15.00% to 14.50%, a decline of 50 basis points. Brazil and Mexico both cut by 25 basis points, while Singapore recorded a smaller drop of 5 basis points.

This trend suggests central banks globally remain cautious. Inflation pressures, the direction of the US dollar, energy prices, and exchange rate conditions remain key considerations in determining monetary policy.

For Indonesia, today’s BI decision will be important to read the direction of monetary policy going forward. Markets will watch whether BI holds rates, or signals a stronger policy stance to maintain rupiah stability by raising the policy rate.

CNBC INDONESIA RESEARCH

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