Global Gold Prices Collapse Amid Fading Expectations of Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

Jakarta – Global gold prices fell sharply below opening levels on Monday, 9 March 2026, as optimism faded that the Federal Reserve would cut its benchmark interest rate.

Spot gold prices declined 1.5 per cent to US$5,091.02, equivalent to approximately 85.94 million rupiah (at an estimated exchange rate of 16,880 rupiah per US dollar) per ounce at 02.33 GMT. Earlier in the session, gold had fallen more than 2 per cent.

Meanwhile, US gold futures contracts for April delivery also dropped 1.2 per cent to US$5,097.40 per ounce.

Pressure on gold prices intensified as the US dollar strengthened, reaching its highest level in more than three months.

Other precious metals also declined. Spot silver fell 1.5 per cent to US$83.09 per ounce, platinum weakened 1.1 per cent to US$2,111.04, and palladium dropped 1.4 per cent to US$1,603.25 per ounce.

“Gold is under pressure today despite market volatility. Surging oil prices in triple digits are driving dollar strength due to inflation concerns and diminished expectations of rate cuts,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Analyst at KCM Trade, according to Yahoo Finance on Tuesday, 10 March 2026.

The spike in energy prices has been a major driver of shifting market sentiment. Crude oil prices surged more than 20 per cent to exceed US$110 per barrel following tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which have raised concerns about potential disruptions to global energy supply.

Waterer noted that much of gold’s rally over the past year had been driven by expectations that the US central bank would begin cutting rates. The fading confidence in Federal Reserve rate cuts, therefore, placed considerable pressure on prices.

“Most of the gold price increase over the past 12 months was based on a dovish view of US interest rates. However, with inflation risks from oil prices above US$100 per barrel, rate cuts are no longer certain, so gold prices are adjusting accordingly,” he explained.

Market participants anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark rate at the conclusion of a two-day meeting scheduled to end on 18 March 2026. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability that the US central bank will maintain rates through June has risen to above 51 per cent, up from below 43 per cent the previous week.