Global Energy Crisis Threat Looms on the Horizon as Oil Prices Could Reach Rp2.5 Million per Barrel

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are rattling global energy markets once again. The conflict involving several regional players raises concerns about the continuity of world oil and gas supply. The region has long been recognised as one of the largest energy production hubs; even minor disruptions in its energy supply chains can trigger a surge in global oil prices.

The impact is not limited to the energy sector but also affects the general public through higher fuel costs, transport expenses, and increases in food prices and imported goods.

These concerns intensified after Qatar’s Energy Minister warned of a potential halt in energy production in the Gulf region in the near term if the conflict continues. Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 9% on Friday, passing 93perbarrel, equivalenttoaroundRp1, 562, 400(assuminganexchangerateofRp16, 800toUS). This marked the highest level since autumn 2023, more than two years ago.

‘HIf this war continues for several weeks, global GDP growth will be affected,’ said Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar’s Energy Minister, as quoted by the BBC on Sunday, 8 March 2026. ‘Energy prices for everyone will rise. There will be shortages of some products and there will be a chain reaction from factories that cannot supply,’ he added.

According to him, if the conflict with Iran continues in the next few weeks, world oil prices could even surge to US$150 per barrel or around Rp2,520,000.

Oil price increases typically have knock-on effects across the economy. In addition to higher fuel costs for vehicles, high energy prices can trigger higher production, transportation, and distribution costs.

Some countries are already feeling the impact. In the United Kingdom, petrol and diesel prices have risen in recent days and reached their highest level in 16 months.