Global Economy Threatened by Stagflation, IMF Highlights Impact of Iran War

WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that the global economy will face higher inflationary pressures accompanied by a slowdown in growth as a result of the Iran war. This condition is deemed unavoidable and could alter previous more optimistic global economic projections. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that the impact of the conflict has significantly shifted the direction of the world economy. Before the conflict erupted, the IMF had projected a slight increase in global economic growth to 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027. However, those expectations have now changed following the Iran war, which has triggered a major shock to the global economy. According to Georgieva, the conflict’s impact is not only short-term and is expected to persist even if the war ends soon. The closure had temporarily halted shipping activities in the Gulf region. Although ship traffic has now begun to resume, its volume remains far below normal conditions. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that eight tankers passed through on Monday, an increase compared to the average of less than two ships per day in March 2026. However, this figure is still far from the pre-war average of around 20 million barrels of crude oil and energy products passing through daily throughout 2025. Georgieva emphasised that poor countries with limited reserves will be the most affected parties. “We are in a world with increasing uncertainty,” she said. She explained that this uncertainty is driven by various factors, from geopolitical tensions and technological developments to climate change and demographic dynamics.