Global Banana Traders Should Be Grateful to China for This
Global banana trade in 2025 shows signs of recovery after weakening the previous year. Banana trade is expected to increase further in the future.
According to initial estimates from the World Food Organisation (FAO), total global banana exports are projected to reach around 20.8 million tonnes, up about 6% from 2024.
However, behind this recovery, trade dynamics remain highly uneven.
Some countries are recording surges in production and exports, while others face pressure from extreme weather, plant diseases, and rising production costs.
Global Recovery, But Full of Uncertainty
Overall, the outlook for global banana trade in 2025 is positive, though many structural challenges remain.
Export recovery is driven by increased supply from major producing countries such as Colombia and the Philippines. On the other hand, global demand is also strengthening, particularly from China, which is experiencing a decline in domestic production.
Russia is also seeing an increase in imports. This rise is due to the improvement of trade routes with Ecuador, which were disrupted in 2024.
In contrast to China and Russia, the United States is experiencing a decline in demand due to rising retail prices.
However, several risks are still factored in:
Extreme weather causing production disruptions in some countries
The spread of plant diseases such as Fusarium Wilt TR4
High production costs pressuring farmers’ profitability
Price increases not fully passed on to producers
Exports: Latin America Remains Dominant, Asia Begins to Rise
On the export side, Latin America remains the main player with an export volume of around 14.5 million tonnes in 2025, though slightly fluctuating compared to the previous year.
In this region, Ecuador remains the largest exporter with an export volume of around 6.4 million tonnes in 2025, up about 451,000 tonnes from 2024.
Colombia also records a significant increase in exports, with an increase of around 318,000 tonnes compared to the previous period.
On the other hand, Asia is beginning to show strength with a total export volume reaching around 5.2 million tonnes in 2025, up from 4.18 million tonnes in 2024, or growing about 24% (up around 1 million tonnes).
The Philippines remains the largest contributor in this region with a volume of around 2.9 million tonnes, accounting for more than 50% of Asia’s total exports, thus remaining the dominant player in the region.
Conversely, Central America is experiencing a decline, with total exports dropping to around 5.2 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Africa sees a moderate increase to around 753,000 tonnes.
Imports: China and Russia Drive Demand, US Weakens
On the import side, global demand is estimated to rise to around 19.9 million tonnes in 2025, from 18.9 million tonnes in 2024.
Asia is the engine of global banana import growth with a total of around 5.38 million tonnes. This surge is mainly driven by China, which exceeds 2 million tonnes due to declining domestic production, while Japan remains stable.
On the other hand, Europe remains the largest market with total imports of around 8.5 million tonnes. The European Union continues to dominate with a volume of around 5.46 million tonnes, while Russia shows significant recovery to 1.37 million tonnes after several years of decline.
Conversely, US imports are beginning to weaken to around 4.02 million tonnes, influenced by rising prices across the distribution chain.
Meanwhile, Africa and Oceania remain relatively small, with African imports dropping to 187,000 tonnes and Oceania—represented only by New Zealand—stagnant at around 85,000 tonnes.