Get Ready! Stock Exchange Opens Tomorrow, These "Critical" Dates Could Shake the IHSG

The Indonesian stock exchange will reopen tomorrow, Wednesday (25/3/2026). The stock market is expected to face pressure amid high global uncertainty, particularly from the impact of the Iran versus Israel-United States (US) war. At the same time, the release of US economic data will also be a crucial factor that could influence the direction of global capital flows, especially to emerging markets like Indonesia. However, pressure is not only coming from abroad. Domestically, investors must also pay attention to several important agendas that have the potential to shake the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG). One of the most anticipated is the latest data release from the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) at the end of March 2026. This data will map investor behaviour in more detail through 27 new categories, from institutions to retail, including indications of whether capital flows are dominated by domestic or foreign investors. This data is very important because it will serve as material for consideration by the Financial Services Authority (OJK) in its meeting with the global index agency MSCI in April. The market is awaiting whether Indonesia’s share ownership structure is deemed sufficiently transparent and liquid to meet global standards. The MSCI issue itself is not new. In recent times, the agency has highlighted the low free float in several Indonesian issuers, which is seen as hindering market liquidity. Even, the index composition changes in February have triggered shifts in capital flows and increased market sensitivity to global index policies. It doesn’t stop there; the market will also monitor the FTSE Russell index update on 7 April 2026. Changes in this global index often trigger rebalancing actions by global institutional investors, which directly impact the movement of certain stocks domestically. Next, the MSCI decision in May 2026 will be one of the most crucial moments of the year. The results of that evaluation have the potential to provide significant sentiment to the Indonesian stock market, either positive or negative. Entering August, the market is also expected to face a further rebalancing phase that could increase volatility, especially in large-cap stocks that serve as benchmarks for global funds. On the other hand, discussions on the implementation of short selling by the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) are still a concern. Although aimed at deepening the market, the implementation of this policy is likely to be postponed again due to infrastructure readiness and market conditions deemed not yet conducive. With such a packed agenda, investors are required to be more careful in reading market directions. The combination of global and domestic pressures makes the IHSG potentially more volatile in the short term. In such situations, understanding the event calendar and potential sentiments becomes the main key to keeping investment strategies adaptive amid still high uncertainty.