Gerindra Legislator Warns of Impact of Escalation in Strait of Hormuz on Global Economy
A member of Commission II of the Indonesian House of Representatives from the Gerindra Party faction, Azis Subekti, has issued a strong warning regarding the escalation of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Azis views the strait not merely as a shipping route, but as the “main artery” of the world economy, which if blocked would trigger global inflation shocks, including in Indonesia.
According to Azis, the geographical position of the Strait of Hormuz, which channels one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, makes it the most vulnerable point in modern geopolitics. He states that the world is currently on the brink of an energy crisis if military confrontation is not quickly defused.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even for just a few weeks, the global economy will feel the fever. Energy prices will soar, inflation will pressure household budgets, and political stability in many countries could be shaken,” Azis said in his statement on Thursday (19/3/2026).
Azis analyses that world leaders are currently reading the same conflict map but with differing interests. He highlights Washington’s position under Donald Trump, which seeks to maintain the architecture of world trade, while Beijing under Xi Jinping is highly pragmatic in safeguarding energy stability for the continuity of its domestic industry.
“For China, as the largest oil importer, stability is more important than victory for anyone in this conflict. Disruptions in Hormuz would directly hit factories in Shanghai and Shenzhen,” he explained.
On the other hand, Azis sees Russia under Vladimir Putin using this crisis as a manoeuvring space to divert the United States’ focus from Europe while gaining benefits from rising global energy prices.
Furthermore, Azis highlights the dilemma faced by Riyadh and Tehran. Saudi Arabia, in his view, is in a difficult position between strategic rivalry with Iran and the risk of regional stability collapse. Meanwhile, Iran under Masoud Pezeshkian is predicted to employ asymmetric escalation strategies through missiles and militia networks to make war extremely costly for its adversaries.
“History shows that Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan. A ground invasion of that country would almost certainly become a prolonged and very expensive war,” he added.
Azis predicts that the future of this crisis will move in three main directions: no large-scale ground invasion due to the complexity of Iran’s terrain, the expansion of conflict to Lebanon, Syria, and the Red Sea, and the threat of surging energy prices triggering domestic social pressures in various countries.
“History always has a simple way of reminding humanity: whoever controls the energy routes holds the world’s pulse. We must be wary of unexpected domestic political changes due to this energy crisis,” Azis concluded.