Geopolitical realignment begins in the Asia-Pacific region

Geopolitical realignment begins in the Asia-Pacific region

Derek da Cunha examines the prospects for strategic shifts in the Asia-Pacific.

Conventional wisdom has it that strategic, rather than economic, imperatives were probably the more instrumental in Vietnam's recent entry into the ASEAN fold. Indeed, the enlargement of ASEAN to seven members is, in itself, viewed as a development laden with strategic significance, possibly heralding the start of a geopolitical realignment in the Asia-Pacific that will have consequences for the region well into the 21st century.

Here, as is becoming increasingly obvious, the China factor looms large in the regional equation, and is beginning to determine the course of events in the Asia-Pacific to a degree unimaginable just a decade ago.

What has changed the nature of regional dynamics is not merely China's rapid growth as a power to be reckoned with. It is also due to the simultaneous retrenchment of Russian power and the slippage in U.S. credibility in the Asia-Pacific. (To be fair, the U.S. has at times been placed in an almost impossible position: damned if it does, damned if it doesn't.)

As for Russia, not much need be said except that the much- expected rebounding of Russian Far Eastern military power remains elusive.

The United States, outside of the Korean peninsula, seems directionless in the Asia-Pacific, concentrating its mind elsewhere. Washington's response to two events in mid-August tends to bear out the point, and provides a study in contrast. On the one hand, Saddam Hussein's son-in-law, a senior Iraqi military officer, defects to Jordan. In response, the U.S. musters two aircraft carrier battle groups, one in the Mediterranean and another in the Persian Gulf, in a resolute act of deterring the Iraqi leader from retaliating against the Jordanians. On the other hand, the Chinese military does a bit of calisthenics by lobbing missiles into waters close to Taiwan, resulting in the diversion of international air traffic and shipping, and sending a shiver through the Hong Kong and Taiwan bourses.

In response, the Americans are unsure what to do, provoking an editorial in the Asian Wall Street Journal (Aug. 17) to ask, almost in exasperation, "Where's the Seventh Fleet?"

Despite the significant U.S. troop presence in Northeast Asia and a slew of recent U.S. proposals for expanded defense ties -- including bilateral and multilateral naval exercises -- with Asia-Pacific states, a large question mark hangs over America's security commitment to the region. In that light, two other regional power centers, Japan and the ASEAN states (as a grouping), have, almost by default, been invested with a new strategic eminence.

Japan, notwithstanding its continued languishment at the trough of the economic cycle, is giving indications of a more activist regional and, indeed, international role. To a large extent, it is China's rise which is rousing Japan to tentatively signal a possible regional counter-balancing role where the U.S. can no longer do so on its own. That, then, sets the stage for Sino-Japanese strategic competition -- an unappetizing prospect for the Asia-Pacific.

It is here that ASEAN comes into the picture. Vietnam's membership, while giving it a semblance of insurance against the growing power just to its north, in turn yields added strategic weight to ASEAN. With that added weight, ASEAN is in an enhanced position to act as a moderating influence in the Asia-Pacific, tempering Chinese and Japanese aspirations and thereby helping to keep the geopolitical balance in equilibrium.

This is a different concept from the one recently articulated by Philippine President Fidel Ramos, where he suggested that Australia and New Zealand plus ASEAN could act as a moderating force vis-a-vis all the major powers, Russia and the U.S. included. This writer takes the view that where geographical proximity is at a premium and perceptions no less important, Australia and New Zealand might be construed as somewhat off the strategic beaten track, and might find it a bit difficult to exert a defining role in the evolving, and essentially East and Southeast Asian, geopolitical construct. On that score, however, perceptions might well change.

In sum, where the resolution of the Cambodian imbroglio was ASEAN's principal cause in the 1980s, a strategic "moderating" role could well be the grouping's chief raison d'etre in the near future. There could be few causes more worthy than those which serve regional peace and stability.

Dr. Derek da Cunha is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, and is Editor of Trends.