Geopolitical realignment begins in the Asia-Pacific region<\/p>\n
Derek da Cunha examines the prospects for strategic shifts in
\nthe Asia-Pacific.<\/p>\n
Conventional wisdom has it that strategic, rather than
\neconomic, imperatives were probably the more instrumental in
\nVietnam's recent entry into the ASEAN fold. Indeed, the
\nenlargement of ASEAN to seven members is, in itself, viewed as a
\ndevelopment laden with strategic significance, possibly heralding
\nthe start of a geopolitical realignment in the Asia-Pacific that
\nwill have consequences for the region well into the 21st century.<\/p>\n
Here, as is becoming increasingly obvious, the China factor
\nlooms large in the regional equation, and is beginning to
\ndetermine the course of events in the Asia-Pacific to a
\ndegree unimaginable just a decade ago.<\/p>\n
What has changed the nature of regional dynamics is not merely
\nChina's rapid growth as a power to be reckoned with. It is also
\ndue to the simultaneous retrenchment of Russian power and the
\nslippage in U.S. credibility in the Asia-Pacific. (To be fair,
\nthe U.S. has at times been placed in an almost impossible
\nposition: damned if it does, damned if it doesn't.)<\/p>\n
As for Russia, not much need be said except that the much-
\nexpected rebounding of Russian Far Eastern military power remains
\nelusive.<\/p>\n
The United States, outside of the Korean peninsula, seems
\ndirectionless in the Asia-Pacific, concentrating its mind
\nelsewhere. Washington's response to two events in mid-August
\ntends to bear out the point, and provides a study in contrast.
\nOn the one hand, Saddam Hussein's son-in-law, a senior Iraqi
\nmilitary officer, defects to Jordan. In response, the U.S.
\nmusters two aircraft carrier battle groups, one in the
\nMediterranean and another in the Persian Gulf, in a resolute act
\nof deterring the Iraqi leader from retaliating against the
\nJordanians. On the other hand, the Chinese military does a bit of
\ncalisthenics by lobbing missiles into waters close to Taiwan,
\nresulting in the diversion of international air traffic and
\nshipping, and sending a shiver through the Hong Kong and Taiwan
\nbourses.<\/p>\n
In response, the Americans are unsure what to do, provoking an
\neditorial in the Asian Wall Street Journal (Aug. 17) to ask,
\nalmost in exasperation, \"Where's the Seventh Fleet?\"<\/p>\n
Despite the significant U.S. troop presence in Northeast Asia
\nand a slew of recent U.S. proposals for expanded defense ties --
\nincluding bilateral and multilateral naval exercises -- with
\nAsia-Pacific states, a large question mark hangs over America's
\nsecurity commitment to the region. In that light, two other
\nregional power centers, Japan and the ASEAN states (as a
\ngrouping), have, almost by default, been invested with a new
\nstrategic eminence.<\/p>\n
Japan, notwithstanding its continued languishment at the
\ntrough of the economic cycle, is giving indications of a more
\nactivist regional and, indeed, international role. To a large
\nextent, it is China's rise which is rousing Japan to tentatively
\nsignal a possible regional counter-balancing role where the U.S.
\ncan no longer do so on its own. That, then, sets the stage for
\nSino-Japanese strategic competition -- an unappetizing prospect
\nfor the Asia-Pacific.<\/p>\n
It is here that ASEAN comes into the picture. Vietnam's
\nmembership, while giving it a semblance of insurance against the
\ngrowing power just to its north, in turn yields added strategic
\nweight to ASEAN. With that added weight, ASEAN is in an enhanced
\nposition to act as a moderating influence in the Asia-Pacific,
\ntempering Chinese and Japanese aspirations and thereby helping to
\nkeep the geopolitical balance in equilibrium.<\/p>\n
This is a different concept from the one recently articulated
\nby Philippine President Fidel Ramos, where he suggested that
\nAustralia and New Zealand plus ASEAN could act as a moderating
\nforce vis-a-vis all the major powers, Russia and the U.S.
\nincluded. This writer takes the view that where geographical
\nproximity is at a premium and perceptions no less important,
\nAustralia and New Zealand might be construed as somewhat off the
\nstrategic beaten track, and might find it a bit difficult to
\nexert a defining role in the evolving, and essentially East and
\nSoutheast Asian, geopolitical construct. On that score,
\nhowever, perceptions might well change.<\/p>\n
In sum, where the resolution of the Cambodian imbroglio was
\nASEAN's principal cause in the 1980s, a strategic \"moderating\"
\nrole could well be the grouping's chief raison d'etre in the near
\nfuture. There could be few causes more worthy than those which
\nserve regional peace and stability.<\/p>\n
Dr. Derek da Cunha is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of
\nSoutheast Asian Studies, Singapore, and is Editor of Trends.<\/p>",
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