Future has never looked bleaker for Anwar

By Simon Martin

KUALA LUMPUR (AFP): Two years after his dramatic arrest by scores of armed and hooded riot police, the future has never looked bleaker for Malaysia's ex-deputy premier Anwar Ibrahim.

A team of lawyers, acting unpaid for the man once seen as premier in waiting, has lost every round of an exhaustive court battle to prove his innocence.

In April 1999 Anwar was jailed for six years for abuse of power and last month was imprisoned for nine years for sodomy.

The sentences will run consecutively, meaning he will be in jail until 2014 unless granted the customary one-third remission.

The appeal court in April rejected Anwar's bid to overturn his conviction for abuse of power.

Anwar, 53, is now appealing to the federal court, the highest court, and is also appealing the sodomy conviction and sentence.

"He has no confidence in the appeal process," said one of his lawyers, Sankara Nair. "As far as he is concerned it's a foregone conclusion.

"He is preparing for the fact that he may have to serve his full term."

Veteran Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, who says Anwar was plotting to topple him but insists that the legal process was independent, seems on the surface to have weathered the storm.

Tens of thousands of Anwar's supporters attended an anti- government rally on Sept. 20, 1998, the day Anwar was arrested. When he was sentenced on Aug. 8 this year, just 500 people rallied outside the court house and subsequent protests have fizzled out.

"The government has made it clear that it will come down hard on demonstrators," said one political analyst close to Mahathir's ruling United Malays National Organization (UMNO).

"Malaysians are not going to jeopardize their interests by taking to the streets to champion Anwar's cause.

"There is very little one can do. But there are dangers if the people are not given the opportunity to express their feelings," said the analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"The government will not be able to gauge public support for it. The people hide their true feelings and then express their feelings through the ballot box. Then the government gets a rude shock."

This is exactly what happened in last November's election when UMNO lost 22 seats -- largely because of the "Anwar factor," according to analysts.

Nationwide opinion polls are not conducted in Malaysia and the next electoral test need not come till 2004. But hundreds of thousands of new young electors, a group seen as especially likely to be attracted to Anwar's Reformasi (reform) campaign, will have qualified to vote by then.

"On the surface Mahathir's position in the party suffered no dent with the latest verdict on Anwar," the analyst said.

"But we do not know what the situation is on the ground. Malaysians, in particular Malays, hide their feelings. Malays, as you know, suppress their feelings and then finally ran amok.

"I do not think any political observer can afford to dismiss the Anwar factor."

Judging from November's polls, the analyst said, Anwar's conviction dealt a severe blow to the ruling National Front and in particular to its largest party UMNO.

A diplomat believes Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Kuan Yew summed it up best when he described the Anwar affair as an "unmitigated disaster" for Mahathir.

Lee highlighted what he called a series of blunders in the handling of the case but made it clear his comments were intended to be sympathetic to Mahathir, 74.

"Mahathir is toughing it out," the diplomat said.

"The government has zero tolerance towards protesters and I think it is hoping that Malays have a short memory span."

The diplomat said the affair had done "a lot of damage" to UMNO, starting with last November's elections. He noted that 70 percent of the population is aged under 35 and more and more young voters are coming on the rolls each election.

"The government must do something to win them back."