Fragile Ceasefire, Gold Still Shows Teeth

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global gold prices have been trending positively throughout this week, supported by the weakening of the US dollar and amid investors’ assessment of the resilience of the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran.

According to Refinitiv, the gold price in the last trade of the week, Friday (10/4/2026), closed at US$4,747.49 per troy ounce. The price weakened by 0.34%. However, over the past week, gold surged 1.54% point-to-point.

A weaker US dollar makes bullion more affordable for buyers using other currencies. In yesterday’s trading, the dollar index (DXY) was observed weakening by 0.12% to 98.69. Over the week, the dollar index corrected by 0.53%.

“The weakening of the US dollar has helped gold recover, but there is caution in the market as participants try to interpret what the ceasefire means,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, quoted from Reuters, Saturday (11/4/2026).

“Headlines about the ceasefire are very encouraging for gold, but prices have fallen from recent highs as cracks begin to appear,” he added.

Israel has bombed more targets in Lebanon, which Tehran says should be included in the ceasefire. Meanwhile, there are no signs that Iran has lifted the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The failure of negotiations and the re-escalation of war risk driving up energy costs and inflation, which could force the US central bank (Federal Reserve/The Fed) to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.

This, in turn, could reduce the attractiveness of gold, which offers no yield, although gold is traditionally a hedge against inflation.

Morgan Stanley said they expect gold prices to stabilise throughout the second quarter of 2026 before recovering in the second half of the year.

“If Fed rate hikes are avoided, we think gold prices could recover, while a resolution to the conflict would also support it, likely refocusing attention on the devaluation of fiat currencies,” said Morgan Stanley analysts.