Four Wars in Four Years: Coal, Gold or Oil — Which Emerges Victorious?

Global commodity markets exhibit a consistent pattern. Every major geopolitical crisis is immediately reflected in energy and precious metals prices. Price movements frequently emerge within days of conflict onset, then shift again as markets assess whether genuine supply disruptions have materialised.

Refinitiv data compiled from several crisis periods clearly demonstrates this dynamic, spanning from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 through Middle East conflict escalation in early 2026.

The Iran versus Israel and United States conflict erupted on 28 February 2026. After 10 days of warfare, tensions began to ease, yet prices for gold, oil and coal surged.

CNBC Indonesia compared commodity price movements for gold, coal and oil following 10 days of trading after the conflict began.

Wave 1

The first period occurred following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. Russia represents one of the world’s largest energy exporters. The risk of sanctions against Russian oil exports immediately triggered a surge in global energy prices.

In data spanning 24 February to 9 March 2022, gold rose approximately 3.39% from US$1,926 to US$1,991 per troy ounce. Oil prices spiked sharply, approaching US$130 per barrel in early March before correcting back to around US$111.

Newcastle thermal coal also moved at very high levels during this period, trading around US$426 per ton on 9 March, which represented the second-highest record on record.

The gold increase during this period related to capital flows into safe-haven assets. Global investors reallocated their portfolios as war risks increased and equity markets became volatile.

Simultaneously, energy markets faced supply uncertainty. Russia played a crucial role in exporting oil and gas to Europe. Concerns over export disruptions created a risk premium on energy prices.

Wave 2

The next wave emerged in October 2023 following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza, subsequently known as the Israel-Hamas War.

Data from 12 to 20 October 2023 showed gold rising approximately 2.55%, from US$1,868 to nearly US$1,981 per troy ounce. Oil prices moved more moderately. Brent rose approximately 1.4% to US$92 per barrel, whilst WTI increased approximately 1.2% to around US$88. Coal during the same period actually weakened by approximately 5.1%, declining from US$150 to US$143 per ton.

This movement related to the structure of global energy supply. The Gaza conflict occurred in a region adjacent to major global oil trade routes, yet did not directly disrupt primary energy production. Consequently, energy market reaction proved more limited compared to the Ukraine crisis. Gold remained attractive to investors seeking protection from geopolitical volatility.

Wave 3

The third period occurred in June 2025 when tensions between Iran and Israel escalated to the point of exchanging missiles.

Data from 13 to 26 June 2025 showed a shift in commodity market direction. Gold declined approximately 1.19% to around US$3,327 per troy ounce.

Coal fell 5.43% from US$112 to approximately US$106 per ton. Oil experienced sharper correction, with Brent declining approximately 12% from US$77 to US$67 per barrel and WTI falling nearly 13% to around US$65.

This correction emerged following initial surges that had occurred several days earlier. Energy markets assessed that primary supply routes through the Persian Gulf continued operating normally. This assessment reduced the risk premium on oil prices, causing prices to decline within a relatively brief timeframe.

Wave 4 — Oil Inflamed

The sharpest surge emerged in early 2026. During the period from 27 February to 10 March 2026, energy prices surged rapidly as the Iran-Israel conflict escalated across the Gulf region.

Brent rose from US$72 to US$94 per barrel, equivalent to approximately 30% growth. WTI increased approximately 35% to US$90 per barrel. Coal also surged approximately 23%, rising from US$116 to nearly US$144 per ton.

This energy surge occurred because markets focused on risks of disrupted oil distribution across the Persian Gulf, the region that carries the bulk of global energy exports. Every threat to energy shipping routes directly manifests in oil prices. Commodity markets respond swiftly because the energy sector possesses high sensitivity to logistical disruptions.

When comparing all periods, gold typically moves first when conflicts trigger global uncertainty. Energy responds more strongly when supply risks increase or trade routes face disruption. Coal follows broader energy dynamics given its widespread use in electricity generation across Asia.