Flexibility on Taiwan: China waits for Chen's move

Flexibility on Taiwan: China waits for Chen's move

The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

China last week floated a nuanced policy remark on Taiwan which has set off a flurry on the island. Vice-Premier Qian Qichen appeared to signal a shift of position when he said members of Taiwan's governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) were welcome to visit the mainland in "an appropriate capacity". Most of the party were moderates, he said obligingly; only a small number were "diehard separatists". He also urged closer economic ties, now that China and Taiwan are both members of the World Trade Organization.

According to the most sanguine interpretation in Taipei, the import of the statement is that the Beijing leadership has belatedly acknowledged the legitimacy of President Chen Shui-bian and his DPP government. No other meaning could be ascribed to the consensus among the China-policy establishment that Qian's words meant China now had the measure of the "ground reality" on the island. DPP chairman Frank Hsieh said it showed China was slowly understanding the island's political situation. Tsai Ing Wen, head of the Mainland Affairs Council, called the Qian invitation a "practical step" but withheld further comment. She wanted to see follow-up action from the mainland.

Divining how much substance there is to a comment such as Qian's is tricky, as always, despite the official China Daily's assertion that this was a bold policy change. As a practical matter, it does represent change in that conferring a status of any sort on the DPP must mean concurrently the sidelining of the Kuomintang (KMT), Beijing's long-time surrogate on the island. To the extent that the DPP is Taiwan's undisputed spokesman -- holding the presidency and then thrashing the KMT in last month's parliamentary election -- should this not be pro forma? Not where China is concerned.

But the occasion for Qian's speech could be seen as further evidence that the change in direction is for real. He spoke last Thursday, the seventh anniversary of President Jiang Zemin's declaration of the Eight Points for developing cross-straits relations and eventual reunification. Form and substance have a close correlation in Beijing utterances, as any observer knows.

All that tea-leaves reading, however, must be subordinate to the key question: Is there a reasonable chance for dialogue to resume soon? All the warm fuzzies the Qian remark has induced in Taipei will count for nothing if the Taiwanese government remains resistant to the one-China formulation as a basis for talks, and decides to do nothing. Relations have been in a state of inertia since 1999 when then-president Lee Teng-hui provocatively redefined ties as "state-to-state". Then came the surprise election in 2000 of the independence-espousing Chen. The prognosis was bleak. It is reasonable to assume that China has reassessed the situation and is offering Taiwan a path towards getting back to formal contact, though on its terms. The People's Daily told the Taiwan leadership in an editorial not to "misjudge and let the golden opportunity" slip. Chen's initial response has been niggardly. He welcomed any statement that would stabilize relations and noted, as his advisers did, that China now recognized the reality of the parliamentary-election outcome. All well and good, but he said nothing which would indicate that he too was ready to re-evaluate the situation. While he and his aides ponder the significance of the overture, China would expect a sign that Taiwan is amenable to restarting a working accommodation.