Flexibility on Taiwan: China waits for Chen's move

Flexibility on Taiwan: China waits for Chen's move

The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore

China last week floated a nuanced policy remark on Taiwan
which has set off a flurry on the island. Vice-Premier Qian
Qichen appeared to signal a shift of position when he said
members of Taiwan's governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
were welcome to visit the mainland in "an appropriate capacity".
Most of the party were moderates, he said obligingly; only a
small number were "diehard separatists". He also urged closer
economic ties, now that China and Taiwan are both members of the
World Trade Organization.

According to the most sanguine interpretation in Taipei, the
import of the statement is that the Beijing leadership has
belatedly acknowledged the legitimacy of President Chen Shui-bian
and his DPP government. No other meaning could be ascribed to the
consensus among the China-policy establishment that Qian's words
meant China now had the measure of the "ground reality" on the
island. DPP chairman Frank Hsieh said it showed China was slowly
understanding the island's political situation. Tsai Ing Wen,
head of the Mainland Affairs Council, called the Qian invitation
a "practical step" but withheld further comment. She wanted to
see follow-up action from the mainland.

Divining how much substance there is to a comment such as
Qian's is tricky, as always, despite the official China Daily's
assertion that this was a bold policy change. As a practical
matter, it does represent change in that conferring a status of
any sort on the DPP must mean concurrently the sidelining of the
Kuomintang (KMT), Beijing's long-time surrogate on the island. To
the extent that the DPP is Taiwan's undisputed spokesman --
holding the presidency and then thrashing the KMT in last month's
parliamentary election -- should this not be pro forma? Not where
China is concerned.

But the occasion for Qian's speech could be seen as further
evidence that the change in direction is for real. He spoke last
Thursday, the seventh anniversary of President Jiang Zemin's
declaration of the Eight Points for developing cross-straits
relations and eventual reunification. Form and substance have a
close correlation in Beijing utterances, as any observer knows.

All that tea-leaves reading, however, must be subordinate to
the key question: Is there a reasonable chance for dialogue to
resume soon? All the warm fuzzies the Qian remark has induced in
Taipei will count for nothing if the Taiwanese government remains
resistant to the one-China formulation as a basis for talks, and
decides to do nothing. Relations have been in a state of inertia
since 1999 when then-president Lee Teng-hui provocatively
redefined ties as "state-to-state". Then came the surprise
election in 2000 of the independence-espousing Chen. The
prognosis was bleak. It is reasonable to assume that China has
reassessed the situation and is offering Taiwan a path towards
getting back to formal contact, though on its terms. The People's
Daily told the Taiwan leadership in an editorial not to "misjudge
and let the golden opportunity" slip. Chen's initial response has
been niggardly. He welcomed any statement that would stabilize
relations and noted, as his advisers did, that China now
recognized the reality of the parliamentary-election outcome. All
well and good, but he said nothing which would indicate that he
too was ready to re-evaluate the situation. While he and his
aides ponder the significance of the overture, China would expect
a sign that Taiwan is amenable to restarting a working
accommodation.