Flexibility on Taiwan: China waits for Chen's move<\/p>\n
The Straits Times, Asia News Network, Singapore<\/p>\n
China last week floated a nuanced policy remark on Taiwan
\nwhich has set off a flurry on the island. Vice-Premier Qian
\nQichen appeared to signal a shift of position when he said
\nmembers of Taiwan's governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
\nwere welcome to visit the mainland in "an appropriate capacity".
\nMost of the party were moderates, he said obligingly; only a
\nsmall number were "diehard separatists". He also urged closer
\neconomic ties, now that China and Taiwan are both members of the
\nWorld Trade Organization.<\/p>\n
According to the most sanguine interpretation in Taipei, the
\nimport of the statement is that the Beijing leadership has
\nbelatedly acknowledged the legitimacy of President Chen Shui-bian
\nand his DPP government. No other meaning could be ascribed to the
\nconsensus among the China-policy establishment that Qian's words
\nmeant China now had the measure of the "ground reality" on the
\nisland. DPP chairman Frank Hsieh said it showed China was slowly
\nunderstanding the island's political situation. Tsai Ing Wen,
\nhead of the Mainland Affairs Council, called the Qian invitation
\na "practical step" but withheld further comment. She wanted to
\nsee follow-up action from the mainland.<\/p>\n
Divining how much substance there is to a comment such as
\nQian's is tricky, as always, despite the official China Daily's
\nassertion that this was a bold policy change. As a practical
\nmatter, it does represent change in that conferring a status of
\nany sort on the DPP must mean concurrently the sidelining of the
\nKuomintang (KMT), Beijing's long-time surrogate on the island. To
\nthe extent that the DPP is Taiwan's undisputed spokesman --
\nholding the presidency and then thrashing the KMT in last month's
\nparliamentary election -- should this not be pro forma? Not where
\nChina is concerned.<\/p>\n
But the occasion for Qian's speech could be seen as further
\nevidence that the change in direction is for real. He spoke last
\nThursday, the seventh anniversary of President Jiang Zemin's
\ndeclaration of the Eight Points for developing cross-straits
\nrelations and eventual reunification. Form and substance have a
\nclose correlation in Beijing utterances, as any observer knows.<\/p>\n
All that tea-leaves reading, however, must be subordinate to
\nthe key question: Is there a reasonable chance for dialogue to
\nresume soon? All the warm fuzzies the Qian remark has induced in
\nTaipei will count for nothing if the Taiwanese government remains
\nresistant to the one-China formulation as a basis for talks, and
\ndecides to do nothing. Relations have been in a state of inertia
\nsince 1999 when then-president Lee Teng-hui provocatively
\nredefined ties as "state-to-state". Then came the surprise
\nelection in 2000 of the independence-espousing Chen. The
\nprognosis was bleak. It is reasonable to assume that China has
\nreassessed the situation and is offering Taiwan a path towards
\ngetting back to formal contact, though on its terms. The People's
\nDaily told the Taiwan leadership in an editorial not to "misjudge
\nand let the golden opportunity" slip. Chen's initial response has
\nbeen niggardly. He welcomed any statement that would stabilize
\nrelations and noted, as his advisers did, that China now
\nrecognized the reality of the parliamentary-election outcome. All
\nwell and good, but he said nothing which would indicate that he
\ntoo was ready to re-evaluate the situation. While he and his
\naides ponder the significance of the overture, China would expect
\na sign that Taiwan is amenable to restarting a working
\naccommodation.<\/p>",
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