Five Critical Periods of the Indonesian Stock Exchange Index: From Lowest Points to Recovery
The Indonesian Stock Exchange Index (IHSG) is currently facing selling pressure due to global geopolitical sentiment.
To provide a measured perspective on current market conditions, investors can review the history of drawdowns, or declines from peak to trough, that have occurred on the domestic stock exchange.
CNBC Indonesia has analysed the critical points of the IHSG over the past six years to illustrate what has transpired in Indonesian stock market trading.
Based on trading data since 2019, there have been five correction phases in the past triggered by various macroeconomic and geopolitical sentiments, before the index ultimately found a new equilibrium point (pivot). The following details the five historical cycles.
- COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis (2019 - 2020)
This phase represents the deepest correction in recent years, triggered by the halt in global economic activity due to the pandemic, with many countries worldwide experiencing GDP declines and recessions as lifestyles shifted to online interaction due to public fear of COVID-19 exposure.
Peak Point: 6,547 (6 February 2019)
Lowest Point: 3,937 (24 March 2020)
Percentage Decline: -39.86%
Duration to Pivot: 412 days
- Post-Commodity Rally Adjustment During Russia-Ukraine Era (April - May 2022)
A short-term correction that occurred as market adjustment following the IHSG’s lengthy rally driven by surging global commodity prices, though it subsequently experienced continued gains due to rising global commodity prices, particularly coal.
Peak Point: 7,276 (21 April 2022)
Lowest Point: 6,597 (13 May 2022)
Percentage Decline: -9.32%
Duration to Pivot: 22 days
- Global Interest Rate Tightening Cycle (September 2022 - March 2023)
A gradual decline driven by aggressive policy from the United States Federal Reserve in raising benchmark interest rates to control high inflation levels, which reached 9.1% at its peak in June 2022, resulting from the war and quantitative easing policies implemented by the Fed during the pandemic.
Peak Point: 7,318 (13 September 2022)
Lowest Point: 6,565 (16 March 2023)
Percentage Decline: -10.28%
Duration to Pivot: 184 days
- Anticipation of Monetary Policy and Domestic Transition (March - June 2024)
Medium-term selling pressure triggered by the narrative of interest rates remaining elevated for longer, combined with investor caution regarding Indonesia’s government transition period, which triggered a significant weakening of the Rupiah and was driven by the implementation of FCA policies and the Evergrande situation in China.
Peak Point: 7,433 (14 March 2024)
Lowest Point: 6,726 (19 June 2024)
Percentage Decline: -9.50%
Duration to Pivot: 97 days
- Effect of Post-US Election Tariff Policy (October 2024 - April 2025)
Donald Trump’s victory and anticipation of protectionist trade tariff policy implementation created negative sentiment for developing nations, bringing the IHSG into a bear market cycle until Eid in 2025, when Trump announced tariffs against countries known as “Liberation Day”.
Peak Point: 7,788 (22 October 2024)
Lowest Point: 5,967 (9 April 2025)
Percentage Decline: -23.38%
Duration to Pivot: 169 days
Current IHSG Performance: Decline Due to MSCI Rebalancing and Geopolitical Escalation
Beyond the five historical cycles above, the IHSG is currently in a new declining phase dominated by MSCI rebalancing on 28 January 2026. Although it has experienced a rebound and received inflows, military escalation between the United States and Iran has become the next catalyst.
Concerns about disruption to energy supply chains have triggered massive risk aversion in global stock markets, including the S&P 500, SSE, Nikkei, Kospi, Stoxx, UKX, and several other stock exchange indices.
The following details the index performance data through today’s trading on Monday (16 March 2026):
Latest Record High: The IHSG reached its peak at 9,134.70 on 20 January 2026.
Current Index Position: Based on today’s latest data, the IHSG stands at 7,018.75 at 10.30 WIB.
Running Percentage Decline: The index has depreciated by -23.16% from its record high point.
Duration of Decline: This correction phase has been running for only 55 days.
With the percentage decline once again exceeding the 20% threshold, current market conditions have technically entered bear market territory. Referring to the previous global sentiment-driven decline cycles, such as those in 2024-2025 which took 169 days, the market is estimated to still require consolidation time and price discovery before market fundamentals can establish a valid pivot point to continue advancing domestic stock market valuations.
Disclaimer: This article is a journalistic product representing the views of CNBC Indonesia Research. This analysis is not intended to encourage readers to buy, hold, or sell related investment products or sectors. The decision rests entirely with the reader, and we are not responsible for any losses or gains arising from such decisions.