Fitch Ratings Lifts 2026 Metal and Commodity Price Assumptions
Fitch Ratings Lifts 2026 Metal and Commodity Price Assumptions
30 Mar 2026 19:04 WIB
Voice of Indonesia
Poin Utama
International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its price assumptions for metals and mining commodities for 2026.
With global commodity prices projected to rise, mining company stocks, including those within the MIND ID Group ecosystem, may benefit from positive sentiment.
RRI.CO.ID, Jakarta - International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its price assumptions for metals and mining commodities for 2026, a move expected to influence mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
According to Fitch’s official report, the copper price projection has increased from USD 9,500 per metric ton (MT) to USD 11,500 per MT, driven by rising demand from global electrification.
The aluminum price assumption has also been raised for the entire projection period, with the 2026 estimate rising from USD 2,550 to USD 2,900 per MT.
“The increase in the aluminum price assumption for the entire period reflects expectations of continued healthy demand growth as well as limited supply additions in the medium term, apart from planned capacity expansions in Indonesia and Southeast Asia,” Fitch stated on its website.
For gold, Fitch raised its price assumptions throughout the projection period in line with a surge in market prices, supported by central bank purchases and increased investment allocations from institutional and retail investors amid global geopolitical tensions. The projection for gold prices has risen from USD 3,400 to USD 4,500 per ton.
Thermal coal assumptions have been revised upward from USD 95 to USD 110 per ton due to tighter market conditions in the first quarter of 2026, following a decline in Indonesian coal exports amid policy uncertainty and weaker domestic production in China.
Nickel’s short-term price assumption has also been raised to USD 16,000, following the Indonesian government’s decision to set lower production quotas.
PT Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk Director Reza Priyambada said the policy could constrain global supply, thereby supporting nickel prices in the international market.
Reza noted that rising commodity prices typically boost sentiment among issuers in the sector. “With this potential increase, market participants usually assume that it will have an impact, particularly a positive one, on issuers related to those commodities,” he said.
Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, Nafan Aji Gusta Utama, said Fitch’s decision to raise its 2026 price assumptions for metals and commodities was reasonable. He added that the projections could serve as a catalyst for the stock prices of related issuers.
He cited the outlook for PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), supported by strong global gold prices and geopolitical uncertainty. With gold prices expected to remain high, profit margins from ANTM’s precious metals refining division are projected to remain strong in early 2026.
Downstream processing initiatives undertaken by ANTM in collaboration with the MIND ID Group also provide an advantage. Partnerships with global companies such as CATL and LG Energy Solution, through the Indonesia Battery Corporation (IBC), have entered advanced construction and operational phases for several HPAL (High-Pressure Acid Leaching) smelter lines.
Government policies restricting raw material exports are expected to further benefit ANTM and the MIND ID Group, which already have established ferronickel smelter infrastructure.
ANTM, together with PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA), has led gains among gold issuers since the start of 2026. ANTM’s stock price has risen 9.03 percent year-to-date, while MDKA’s has increased 38.63 percent as of the market close on Friday, March 27.
From a technical perspective, MNC Sekuritas Head of Research, Retail, Herditya Wicaksana, highlighted several commodity stocks worth monitoring. These include PT Merdeka Gold Resources Tbk (EMAS), with a target price range of IDR 9,000–9,400, and PT Archi Indonesia Tbk (ARCI), with a range of IDR 1,755–1,905.
He also recommended PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk (ADRO) at IDR 2,520–2,600 and state-owned coal issuer PT Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk (PTBA) at IDR 2,900–3,080.
Amid projections of rising global commodity prices, mining company stocks, including those within the MIND ID Group ecosystem, may benefit from positive sentiment. Market participants are advised to examine both fundamental and technical conditions before making investment decisions. (Gusti Panji/Lasti Martina)
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