Fitch Predicts Rise in Commodity Prices, Here's the Outlook

International rating agency Fitch Ratings has raised its assumptions for metal and mining commodity prices for 2026. This projection could become a positive sentiment for the performance of mining company stocks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI). According to Fitch Ratings’ official report, the copper price projection has risen from the previous $9,500 per tonne to $11,500 per tonne. The increase in the copper price assumption is driven by rising demand from global electrification. Meanwhile, the aluminium price assumption has also been raised for the entire projection period due to demand expected to remain strong in the coming years. For this year, the price projection rises from $2,550 per tonne to $2,900. “The increase in the aluminium price assumption for the entire period reflects expectations of healthy demand growth and limited supply additions in the medium term, aside from capacity expansion plans in Indonesia and Southeast Asia,” as quoted from Fitch Ratings’ official website in Jakarta on Wednesday (1/4/2026). For gold, Fitch has raised the price assumption throughout the projection period in line with the market price surge driven by central bank purchases and increasing investment allocations from institutional and retail investors amid global geopolitical tensions. The gold price increase is predicted from $3,400 per ounce to $4,500 per ounce. For thermal coal, Fitch has raised the price assumption from $95 per tonne to $110 per tonne, due to tighter market conditions especially in the first quarter of 2026. This is triggered by a decline in Indonesian coal exports due to policy uncertainty and weakening domestic production in China. Meanwhile, the short-term nickel price assumption has also been raised to $16,000 per tonne, in line with the Indonesian government’s policy setting lower production quotas. This policy could pressure global supply, thereby supporting nickel prices in the international market. Director of PT Reliance Sekuritas Indonesia Tbk, Reza Priyambada, said that the increase in commodity price assumptions reflects Fitch’s assessment of current global conditions. According to him, rising commodity prices usually serve as positive sentiment for issuers related to that sector. “With the potential for such increases, market participants usually assume that the rise will have a particularly positive impact on issuers related to those commodities,” Reza stated.