Fiscal Dynamics Set to Influence IHSG Movement This Week
An equity analyst from PT Indo Premier Securities (IPOT), Hari Rachmansyah, forecasts that domestic capital market sentiment this week will be influenced by fiscal dynamics and monetary policy amid rising global energy commodity prices. He stated that surging crude oil and coal prices could increase pressure on government finances, thereby necessitating swift measures to keep the budget deficit under control.
“The combination of fiscal dynamics and the direction of monetary policy is expected to be the primary factor shaping sentiment and the direction of movement in the Composite Stock Price Index in the short term,” Hari said in a press statement on Monday, 16 March 2026.
Should the fiscal deficit continue to widen, he noted, the resulting risks include increased government debt financing requirements, pressure on government bond yields, and potential rupiah weakening due to heightened investor risk perception regarding fiscal stability.
Additionally, Hari observed that market participants will also monitor the results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors meeting. He indicated that by consensus, the central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate to preserve currency stability and control inflation amid mounting external pressures.
On the external front, Hari assessed that global uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran will continue to weigh on markets. “Whilst this conflict persists, global market volatility is expected to remain elevated as investors tend to adopt a risk-off stance,” he said.
Hari also predicted that the Composite Stock Price Index will move mixed with a weakening tendency. Trading this week will occur for only two business days—16-17 March 2026—due to the extended holiday for Nyepi and Eid al-Fitr.
In conditions of continued market uncertainty, Hari advised investors to be more selective in stock selection, prioritising issuers with strong fundamentals, stable cash flows, and relatively defensive exposure to global volatility. “Smart money’s wait-and-see strategy, maintaining higher cash positions, and gradually accumulating at support levels could be a more prudent approach whilst awaiting clarity on global geopolitical developments and the direction of domestic fiscal policy,” he said.